2017 NFL Picks for Conference Championships

For those that care, posts from the last few weeks are now updated.

I had a much better time picking the Divisional Round games, going 3-1 last week. That improves my 2017 post-season record to 5-3 so far, which is a far cry from the 7-1 I was at this point last year. Pittsburgh was upset by Jacksonville as my only loss last week, as Philadelphia upset Atlanta (as home dogs and the #1 seed mind you), New England destroyed Tennessee (as expected), and Minnesota won on a miracle in New Orleans.

Next up are the AFC/NFC Conference Championships, which will determine the participants in Super Bowl LII:

2017 NFL Picks for Divisional Round

So-so start to the post-season, as I went 2-2 during Wild Card Weekend. I went with all the home teams (foreshadowing?), but was surprised with upset wins by Tennessee and Atlanta. Kansas City and Andy Reid blew another big game, as the Los Angeles Rams were unable to continue their surprising season. All of the Divisional Round games should be entertaining, but how well will I pick the winners?

2017 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

I finished up the regular season by going 10-6, which dropped me below 69% overall to end up at 68.75%. Had I correctly picked 4 more games I would have reached my goal of 70% on the year, so not too bad when all is said and done. The Eagles lost to Dallas as my only upset pick last week, which evens me out at .500 for the year (22-22). That means I would have done just as well picking all the favorites each week, but what's the fun in that?

For some reason I picked Baltimore for the second straight week as my PotW, but I figured they'd win with a playoff berth in their grasp. They lost to Cincinnati though, as I end the year 13-4 in that category.

Week 17 saw all division matchups, but very few of them actually had any meaning before kickoff. At least that's my excuse for going 10-6, with my incorrect picks being Washington at the New York Giants, Philadelphia at home against Dallas (upset), Baltimore at home vs Cincinnati (PotW), New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Seattle at home against Arizona, and Denver at home vs Kansas City.

I may do an in-depth post about the regular season, but for now let's move on to the Wild Card round of the 2017 playoffs:

2017 NFL Picks Week 17

Went 12-4 last week, which slightly raised my overall percentage to 69.2%. Baltimore won as my POTW, and I'm now 13-3 this season. My only upset pick (NYG) lost to drop me down to 22-21 this year.

Aside from the New York Giants losing to Arizona, losses were Detroit at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at San Francisco, and Dallas at home against Seattle (which eliminated them from playoff contention).

On to Week 17:

2017 NFL Picks Week 16

After a down week, I was back on track Week 15 as I went 13-3 and raised my overall percentage nearly a point to 68.75% (from 67.8%). Minnesota won as my PotW, and improves me to 12-3 this season. I had a crazy 5 upset picks, but only correctly picked 2 of them (Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams). Of the other 3, 2 were decided on the final plays of the games. Damn. Regardless, I am now 22-20 overall in upset picks.

As I mentioned above, all my losses were upset picks in which the favored team prevailed: Green Bay couldn't beat Carolina, Pittsburgh lost at home to New England, and Tennessee couldn't pull it out at San Francisco. Week 16 will see 0 Thursday, 2 Saturday, and 2 Monday games:

2017 NFL Picks Week 15

Week 14 was my first subpar week in a while, as I only went 9-7. That dropped me by a percentage point overall, down to 67.8% for the whole season. Carolina over Minnesota was my only correct upset pick out of 3, as my record creeps closer to .500 at 20-17. The LA Chargers blew out Washington as my PotW (which I mistakenly picked 2 weeks in a row), improving me to 11-3 so far.

Since there were plenty of losses this week, I'll be quick: New Orleans at Atlanta (upset), Tampa Bay over Detroit (upset), Cincinnati over Chicago, Houston over San Fransicso, New York Jets at Denver, Tennessee at Arizona, and most shockingly New England at Miami.

On to Week 15:

2017 NFL Picks Week 14

I continued to pick games well again last week, as I finished 12-4 to slightly raise my overall to 68.75%. I have not had more than 4 losses since way back in Week 6, and I'll still finish the year at 64% even if I go 32-32 the final 4 weeks. The Los Angeles Chargers won as my PotW, now 10-3 this year. Both my upset picks won (San Francisco, Miami) to improve my upset record to 19-15.

Incorrect picks were Washington on the road against Dallas, Atlanta at home against Minnesota, Kansas City at the New York Jets, and road favorites Philadelphia at Seattle. On to Week 14, where the playoff races intensify:

2017 NFL Picks Week 13

Last week started off great by going 3-0 on Thanksgiving, and continued to be a good week as I finished 13-3 (I did say it would be easy pickings last week!). That raised my overall percentage over a point to 68.2%, as I inch closer to 70% on the year. Pittsburgh prevailed as my Pick of the Week, as I improve to 9-3. New Orleans was unable to beat the LA Rams on the road, as I lost my only upset pick to drop to 17-15 this year. Not too good.

Aside from the New Orleans loss, Kansas City continued their slide at home against Buffalo and Jacksonville lost it late at Arizona.

Week 13 picks after the jump:

2017 NFL Picks Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Week 11 is in the books, and so are the bye weeks. That means 16 games every Sunday for the next 5 weeks! Lots of opportunity there, so hopefully I continue my current trend. That trend is going 10-4 for the second consecutive week, to raise my overall percentage by a half point to 66.9% (that's 2 out of every 3, and about 10% higher than this point last year). I picked Kansas City as my PotW thanks to Andy Reid's stellar post-bye record, but they shit the bed in a 12-9 loss at the New York Giants. That's what I get for picking a road team, and my record drops to 8-3 as a result. Atlanta was my only correct upset pick out of 3 games, so I am 17-14 on the year after starting off much more accurately.

Incorrect picks were the aforementioned Chiefs at the Giants, a pair of non-upsets in Miami vs Tampa Bay and Arizona at Houston, and finally Denver over Cincinnati at home.

Week 12 starts off quickly with 3 games on Thanksgiving Day, and should be an easy week to pick winners with a ridiculous 9 of 16 games having a point spread of 6.5 or more (5 of those are double digits). There will undoubtedly be some upsets, but what team will it be? On to the picks!

2017 NFL Picks Week 11

Finished Week 10 at 10-4, raising my overall percentage slightly to 66.4%. 8-2 for Picks of the Week this year, thanks to a Detroit victory over Cleveland. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks (San Francisco), which puts me at 16-12 this season.

Losses were Washington losing to Minnesota as home underdogs, Chicago losing to Rodgers-less Green Bay, the New York Jets losing at Tampa Bay, and Buffalo losing to New Orleans also as home underdogs.

Week 11 is upon us, and it's the last week of byes: