Eagles vs. Cardinals: Behind the Numbers 2013

4 in a row! The Philadelphia Eagles won their 4th consecutive game, with the last two at home. They held on to beat the Arizona Cardinals by a score of 24-21, and once again sit atop the NFC East tied with the Dallas Cowboys. In reality the division will probably come down to that week 17 matchup, so the Eagles do control their own destiny. Enough of that; the Birds actually beat a team with a winning record, and will look to do the same next week. Let's once again dissect the numbers from the game, in which trends, both good and bad, have continued:

Once again the final score was closer than the game actually was. The Eagles may have only won by 3 points, but this game was essentially over after the first drive of the 3rd quarter. Wow, I sound like a broken record, but it's been the case the last few games. And much like the last few games, the numbers were closer than one may think. In fact, Philadelphia was outgained and outpassed, achieved one less first down, and fared worse on third downs. Astonishingly Arizona actually ran less plays than the Eagles, which may be a first for the season. Normally the Birds capitalize on their plays, but in this game they gained about a yard less per play. On the upside they did fare slightly better than the Cardinals in the penalty department (5 for 48 yards vs. 6 for 55) and were able to force 3 turnovers, which resulted in 7 points. (Keep in mind the penalties for both teams came at key moments and cost their respective teams.) Despite the evenness of the numbers the Eagles outscored the Cardinals, which is the most important stat of any game.

Eagles vs. Cardinals: Behind the Numbers

Well, there's not much to say about this one. Not much was done right by the Eagles, who handily lost yesterday against the Arizona Cardinals 27-6. So in a way, I guess I was right last week when I predicted a blow out; I just had the wrong team winning! Anyway, on to the numbers.

 

The first thing that stands out here, aside from the score, is how even both the Eagles and Cardinals were in the key categories. Oh, and the turnovers again. Based on the 9 stats in the middle of the graph, the 27-6 score doesn't make much sense. In fact, based on those stats, the Eagles should have won: they gained more net yards, had more rushing yards, and gained more yards per play. Passing yards were only +5 in favor of the Cardinals, first downs were even, the Cardinals fared slightly better on 3rd down conversions. Penalties for the Birds were actually manageable, only committing 5 for 65 yards; this is still something to be improved upon. However all of this is moot once we get to the turnovers. In the previous 2 weeks the Eagles gave the ball up 9 times, but they capitalized on the 6 takeaways by the defense. This week they weren't so lucky, as Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals protected the ball for the whole game which never gave the Eagles a chance to pick up momentum. Turnovers, to me, were the reason the Eagles lost this game; their sloppy play finally caught up to them.

What if the Eagles didn't blow those 4th quarter leads?

The NFC standings would be different, that's for sure.  As they are now:

NFC

East

• 6-3 NY Giants
• 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
• 3-6 Philadelphia Eagles
• 3-6 Washington Redskins

North

• 9-0 Green Bay Packers
• 6-3 Detroit Lions
• 6-3 Chicago Bears
• 2-7 Minnesota Vikings

South

• 7-3 New Orleans Saints
• 5-4 Atlanta Falcons
• 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2-7 Carolina Panthers

West

• 8-1 San Francisco 49ers
• 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
• 3-6 Arizona Cardinals
• 2-7 St. Louis Rams

The Eagles blew 4th quarter leads in 5 of their 6 losses, versus the Falcons, Giants, 49ers, Bears, and Cardinals.  I don't think it's unreasonable to assume the Eagles could have won each one of those games, considering the late blown leads.  Here's the updated standings had they won:

NFC

East

• 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles
• 5-4 NY Giants
• 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
• 3-6 Washington Redskins

North

• 9-0 Green Bay Packers
• 6-3 Detroit Lions
• 5-4 Chicago Bears
• 2-7 Minnesota Vikings

South

• 7-3 New Orleans Saints
• 4-5 Atlanta Falcons
• 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2-7 Carolina Panthers

West

• 7-2 San Francisco 49ers
• 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
• 2-7 Arizona Cardinals
• 2-7 St. Louis Rams

As you can see, the Eagles would have a commanding lead in the NFC East, with the Giants in the middle of the Wild Card hunt.  The Bears, who have recently had a resurgence, would also be in the middle of the Wild Card hunt and not leading it/favored to win.  The Falcons, who have stumbled as of late, would give the Saints control of the NFC South and be at the bottom of the possible Wild Card teams.  For the NFC West, the Cardinals would share the basement with the Rams instead of being a game up, so no significance there.  However, had the 49ers lost, they'd have been 2-2 at the time as opposed to the much better 3-1.  They've won several close games this season, and it's possible the Eagles game gave them some momentum (it certainly took away any the Eagles were hoping to gain).  They'd probably still be leading the West, but it would be a much different division.

If the Eagles continue to blow leads, I might have to do another one of theses "what ifs".  Stay tuned.

Disappointment

I can only imagine how much better tonight would be if the Phillies had beat the Cardinals. In other news, it's supposed to snow in NJ tomorrow? What?

A bit of a dilemma

The Phillies cap off the long regular season tonight against the Braves.  If they win, they will set a new franchise record with 102 wins.  However, this will also allow the Cardinals to make the playoffs with a win, therefore becoming the Phillies opponent in the NLDS.  If the Cardinals don't win though (and the Phils do) then the Cards and Braves will play a one game playoff in order to decide the NL Wildcard.  (The playoff would also occur if both teams win tonight.) This would be presumably be good for the Phillies, unless the Braves win the playoff since it wouldn't affect them.  Personally, I'd rather not have the Phillies play the Cardinals in the first round, as they've been red hot lately (and beat the Phillies 3 of 4 recently).  If the Braves become the wildcard team, the Phillies would play the lowest remaining seed in the NLDS, which would be the Diamondbacks.  In my opinion, they don't pose much of a threat to the Phillies.  Yet despite this, I'd really love the Phillies to set that franchise record, just not at the cost of playing the Cardinals in the first round, unless they burn a starter during the one game playoff.

So best case scenario?  The Phillies win, the Cardinals lose, the Braves and Cardinals play a one game playoff to decide the NL Wildcard, the Braves win, and the Phillies play the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.  We'll see what happens.