Eagles vs. Saints: Behind the Numbers 2013 Wild Card Game

Just because the Philadelphia Eagles weren't expected to make it to the playoffs doesn't make their Round 1 Wild Card loss to the New Orleans Saints any less devastating. They lost at home on a last second field goal 26-24, sending the Birds home for the rest of the playoffs. In the end, the cold weather didn't have much effect on the game, and it came down to the final possession which unfortunately placed the ball in Drew Brees' hands. Despite the result, it was an entertaining game after the first quarter, and capped a terrific season by the Eagles. On to the numbers:

Strictly looking at the numbers, the Eagles were lucky to be in this game as long as they were. They gained nearly 200 yards less than the Saints, including a surprising 105 less rush yards. That, to me, was the reason the Eagles lost this game. Everyone was worried about Drew Brees picking apart the Eagles secondary, but he had an OK game throwing for just 250 yards and 2 interceptions (which led to 7 points for Philadelphia). Mark Ingram ran all over the Eagles defense, gaining nearly 100 yards. The Eagles offense wasn't as explosive as it usually was, only gaining 4.5 yards on average and throwing for under 200 yards while LeSean McCoy was held in check. They played a very clean game with only 4 penalties and no turnovers, which absolutely helped them stay in the game until the final drive. If you take a look at first downs and third down % however, you can see the Eagles were unable to sustain drives like the Saints were. Philly was probably one big play, turnover, or defensive stop away from winning this game but it wasn't meant to be.

Eagles vs. Redskins II: Behind the Numbers 2013

Holy crap, the Eagles won a home game! They did so in dominating fashion (at least for the first 3 quarters, more on that later) by winning 24-16 over the Washington Redskins. Over the last 3 games, the Eagles have recorded 3 wins and the stats have also revealed some interesting trends. Does it matter? The Birds are in first place in the NFC East, but we'll take a gander anyway (bonus graph included!):

Like I mentioned above, fairly even numbers for the third week in a row. Despite winning the game, the Eagles ran 15 fewer plays, gained 25 less yards (including 65 on the ground), had 1 less first down, converted less third downs, and committed more penalties for more yards. However, once again, Philly made the most of their plays and on average gained a whole yard more per play. They also forced an RG3 fumble that led to 3 points, and sealed the game with an interception in the end zone. While they could do better in the penalty department, they managed to play a turnover free game, which usually leads to wins as it did here. Even the score ended up being close, with the Eagles only winning by 8 over the Redskins. In the end, the Eagles had control of this game for 3 quarters, and got a huge division win while essentially putting an end to the Redskin's playoff hopes.

Eagles vs. Packers: Behind the Numbers 2013

Another away game for the Eagles, and another dominating win! The Birds have proven they can win on the road, as they now have a 4-1 record away from the Linc. Despite heading to Lambeau Field, Philadelphia took care of an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers fairly easily, winning 27-13. The game was essentially over before the 3rd quarter for the second week in a row, and the numbers were closer than the score would indicate just like the week before. Let's take a look:

Well, this looks familiar doesn't it? Last week's results looked pretty similar, albeit with a few differences. Despite coming out on top in score (27-13), the Eagles ran fewer plays than the Packers, threw for about 75 less yards, had less first downs, and converted a lower percentage of third downs. The Eagles running fewer plays than their opponents has become a trend this season, but it is usually coupled with a better average gain (7.2 vs 5.3 here) and more total yards. In this game, the Eagles ran for over 100 more yards, since they gave up on the passing game once they built up a lead (also why the Packers out-passed the Eagles). The Birds continue to play fairly clean games, as they only committed 5 penalties and had once turnover (to 2 for Green Bay).

Eagles vs. Raiders: Behind the Numbers 2013

I'm at a loss for words after this game, but for a different, better reason than last week. The Philadelphia Eagles destroyed (not dominated - more on that later) the Oakland Raiders on their home turf, 49-20. And it wasn't even as close as the 29 point margin, either. Nick Foles clearly bounced back in a big way, throwing for over 400 yards and an NFL record-tying 7 touchdown performance. Peyton who? Nah, he's not on that level, but Eagles fans have to be at least somewhat excited to have him start at QB for the foreseeable future (with Michael Vick's status being unknown). Before we look at the numbers, keep in mind that a blowout in score may not be a blowout in stats:

Like I said, just because the Eagles dominated the scoreboard doesn't mean they dominated the game. I'll talk more about garbage time, which clearly played a part in the seemingly even (or even skewed towards the Raiders) statistics between Oakland and Philadelphia. However, let's look at them as is for now.

Aside from the massive difference in score, the first thing that stands out is the discrepancy between offensive plays, and average gain. "Holy shit" is the phrase that comes to mind: The Raiders ran a whopping 92 plays, a ridiculous 35 more than the Eagles, but Philadelphia gained an excellent 9.5 yards per gain to a very good 6.1 by Oakland. Despite outscoring their opponent by 29, the Eagles gained less net yards, somehow less rushing yards, and less first downs. Basically, they capitalized much better than Oakland on the chances they had, while also fairing better on third downs (40% to 33%), committing less penalties for less yards, and managing 2 takeaways. Enough numbers, let's get to the commentary...

Eagles vs. Buccaneers: Behind the Numbers 2013

Sure, they got 2 wins in the last 2 weeks against winless teams, but Nick Foles and the Phildadelphia Eagles took care of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, winning 31-20. Though losing at halftime, the Birds used a dominant second half to come out with the W. It was a game the Eagles were supposed to win, but do the numbers support the result?

To answer that question: yes! The Eagles outplayed the Buccaneers in every facet of the game. They outscored, out gained, out ran, and out passed them. They had more first downs, and converted more third downs. They had a fairly clean game, too; only 1 turnover and only 3 penalties for 31 yards. The Birds were able to force 1 turnover by Tampa Bay, which resulted in a touchdown (capitalizing!). If you want to nitpick, the only area the Eagles failed to match the Bucs in was total plays, which they had 1 less. Key stats for the Eagles: rushing yards (138) was over 100 for the 5th time in the first 6 games, and they are averaging well over 100 per game; after the abysmal Kansas City game, the Eagles have only turned the ball over 1 time while recording 5 takeaways; they have had over 400 net yards in every single game this season, with this week's total (425) being the lowest yet.

Eagles vs. Giants: Behind the Numbers 2013

It may not have been a must-win for the Birds this week, but I'd say it was a must-win for the Birds this week. With a win and a Cowboys loss, the Eagles are tied for first place in the NFC East at 2-3, which is big since they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL (as I mentioned in the last BTN). Let's see what the numbers uncover about the Eagles 36-21 win over the New York Giants:

Believe it or not, the Giants were actually winning this game as late as 13:56 into the 3rd quarter after scoring 2 touchdowns. But after the score was 21-19 in their favor, the Eagles took over the game in dominating fashion, scoring 17 unanswered points (thanks to two 4th quarter touchdowns by Nick Foles). The numbers certainly support the Eagles here, as they bested New York in total plays, net yards, average gain, rushing yards, first downs, and third down percent. The only offensive category in which the Giants bettered the Birds was passing yards, which makes sense being down in the 4th quarter couple with their awful rushing game. Philadelphia also committed less penalties: 8 for 88 is still a cause of concern, but the Giants had 12 for an absurd 136 yards. The Eagles did not turn the ball over for the second consecutive game (and third all year) while forcing 4 turnovers (3 Eli Manning INTs). Luckily, they capitalized by scoring 17 points as a result. Clean games will often result in wins, as evidenced here.

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Behind the Numbers 2013

It was almost a year since Andy Reid won a game at Lincoln Financial Field; too bad this time it was as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs! The Eagles were handed their 8th straight home loss, and their second straight of the 2013 season dropping them to 1-2. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why the Birds lost this game, but let's take a look to see if they numbers confirm or deny. Spoiler alert! They confirm:

Honestly, there aren't too many huge discrepancies here. The Eagles only lost the game by 10, but it felt like much more than that based on how poorly they played. Want proof? Fix your eyes on the final two stats: Turnovers and Points Off Turnovers. While the first two games were played fairly clean (2 turnovers) by the Eagles, they more than made up for that against the Chiefs (and are now even in takeaways/giveaways). Michael Vick looked like he forgot how to make good decisions. Simple things like catching a punt and snapping the ball could not be done. In total, the Eagles turned the ball over to the Chiefs 5 times, who scored (luckily only) 13 points as a result. Philadelphia didn't help their cause early on, as 2 of their turnovers put them in a 10-0 hole before 5 minutes were off the 1st quarter game clock. Hmm, seems like those 10 points really helped out Kansas City, considering THEY WON BY 10 POINTS. Without that help, who knows how this game would have ended. Other stats to take note of: the Eagles are obviously better running more plays on offense, but this was the second game where they lost that battle (77-63); when they do run plays, they have an excellent average gain (6.8) and can clearly run the ball (260 yards vs 147); penalties have been pretty good this year; and third down percent was sub par this game (30%).

Eagles vs. Chargers: Behind the Numbers 2013

Well, last Sunday's home opener against the Chargers was disappointing, to say the least. Fans were riding high after last week's dominant win over Washington, but were severely let down with this loss. Before even delving into the numbers, I'll state the obvious: The Eagles defense lost this game, big time. Let's see if the numbers agree!

I'll start with the stats that stick out the most: offensive plays, average gain, first downs, 3rd down %, penalties/yards, and turnovers. Now some of these were in the Birds favor, but others weren't. The San Diego Chargers ran more plays than Philadelphia (who only ran 5 more plays than in the first half of last week's game), but Philly gained close to the same number of net yards (511 vs. 539) with a average gain of 2 more yards per play. 8.8 yards per play is quite good, but that's a moot point if you give up over 530 yards of total offense to the opposition, let them get 33 first downs, and fail to stop over 2/3 of their 3rd down attempts. Add to that by committing 9 penalties for 77 yards (the Chargers had less than half of that) and even with 2 turnovers it's no surprise that you set yourself up to lose the game. Sure, they didn't turn the ball over (Vick is making good decisions for now, more on that later) but when they forced turnovers by San Diego they were unable to capitalize. 0 points off turnovers, though to be fair both turnovers prevented scores from the Chargers. So basically besides a nearly perfect game by Michael Vick and accumulating over 500 yards of offense and 30 points, the Eagles lost this game by giving up just as much as they had. Plus 3 points, of course.

Eagles vs. Redskins: Behind the Numbers 2013

Well, one way for the Eagles to sucker me in to doing another season of Behind the Numbers is to start the year with a excellent win over the Washington Redskins (even though they started last year 2-0). If you don't know what Behind the Numbers is already, check out last year's installments by clicking the tag below this post. Without further ado, let's start the first entry of the 2013 season:

Right off the bat, I'll let everyone know that I added a new category this year: Points Off Turnovers. I felt like this was an important stat to keep track of; obviously turnovers are a huge indication of the quality of a team, but if the other team can't capitalize on said turnovers then it doesn't matter as much. Right? Right. Let's analyze! 

The first thing that sticks out is obviously the discrepancy in rushing yards. The Eagles amassed a ridiculous 263 yards on the ground, to just 74 for the Redskins (yes, even with RG3 and Alfred Morris). This is partly due to the Eagles building a 26-7 lead by halftime, but mainly due to the absurd running skills displayed by LeSean McCoy. Did you see those cuts and jukes? Holy crap, he made the Redskins defense look like a high school team, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Moving away from the run game, the Eagles came out on top for offensive plays, net yards, average gain (which matched McCoy's), first downs, third down conversions, and points off turnovers. They even did better than the 'Skins in the "bad" categories: penalties (8 vs 10), penalty yards (75 vs 65), and turnovers (2 vs 3). The only advantage that Washington had? Passing yards, which makes sense given that the Redskins tried to overcome a huge 26 point deficit. I was most impressed with the Birds 3rd down conversions, which at 47% is a huge improvement from last year's average (37%).  More after the jump!

Eagles vs. Saints: Behind the Numbers

This team SUCKS. The offensive line is trash, and they can't score in the red zone. The defense can't come up with a big play, ever. I'm throwing in the towel. If they make the playoffs, then I'll be watching, but I'm done caring until then. On to the numbers (late due to the election and laziness):

Let's see here, what do you get when you run more plays, gain more yards (passing and rushing), achieve more first downs, and have 2 takeaways? The answer is a 15 point loss! On a deeper look it's not that surprising, when you consider that the Eagles were awful on third down, and scored a mere 6 points on 5 red zone possessions. And despite having 2 takeaways in which the Birds scored 10 points, they also turned the ball over twice in the red zone. Basically, the Eagles were able to move the ball almost at will against an awful Saints defense, but were unable to finsish drives and capitlalize on their chances. Oh, and that defense barely put pressure on Drew Brees, only sacking him twice for -8 yards. He was able to keep drives sustained long enough (56% third down conversions) and the Saints were able to score 4 touchdowns. Much different game if the Eagles scored a touchdown on even one more drive, and the Saints were stopped on one.

Eagles vs. Browns: Behind the Numbers

I figured I'd start a new weekly feature on the blog for the Philadelphia Eagles; I'll go behind the numbers and stats from the games each week, and see why the Eagles won and lost, and my analysis.  Let's see how it goes, shall we?

 

Taking a look at some key stats above, we can easily see that the Eagles dominated the Browns in nearly every facet of the game. This unfortunately included penalties and turnovers, however. The Eagles amassed a whopping 12 penalties for a massive 110 penalty yards, which is even more alarming compared to just 3 penalties for 35 yards for the Browns. Both QBs -Michael Vick and Brandon Weedon- threw 4 interceptions; just for good measure, LeSean McCoy tossed in a fumble, too. Based on these stats you'd expect a sloppy game, but also a loss for the Birds. But of course, there's more to the game...