2018 NFL Picks Week 17

Another forgettable week picking ATS, as I finished 4-10-2. I did finish 10-6 straight up for the second consecutive week, at least. I would need to finish 15-1 both straight up and ATS to reach my goal of 66%/50% respectively. Indy barely pulled it out over NYG for my PotW, and I improve to 11-3 this year thanks to 2 missed weeks. Upsets were 0-1 straight up (18-6 overall), and 3-3 ATS (40-31 overall).

4 of my incorrect picks in both formats were upsets, and of course the one game I picked as an upset in both formats was wrong. Too bad for me, on to Week 17 with all the games that matter being played after 4:25pm:

2018 NFL Picks Week 16

Forgettable Week 15, so I won't dwell on it. I went a respectful 10-6 straight up, but an abysmal 4-11-1 ATS. Upsets I was 1-1/1-3; now 18-5/37-28 on the season. The Rams (thankfully) lost as my PotW to drop me to 10-3 this year.

Recap of my losses? No thanks, on to Week 16:

2018 NFL Picks Week 15

Week 14 was very disappointing, as I picked very average. I finished 8-8 straight up and 7-9 ATS, which dipped me to a game under .500 ATS. My only 2 straight upset picks were incorrect, as I fall to 17-14 for the season. I faired better picking upsets ATS, going 2-3 to bring my total to 36-25 on the year. I forgot to pick a Pick of the Week again, so I remain at 10-2 (though I likely would have picked the Chargers).

There were 7 games in which I incorrectly picked both straight up and ATS. 5 of those were upsets, and of course the 2 upsets I picked were not among them (PHI, WAS). Buffalo was unable to win as home favorites over the New York Jets, NE was upset again in MIA, the 49ers held off the Broncos at home, Oakland prevailed over Pittsburgh, and the Chicago Bears completely shut down the Los Angeles Rams.

On to Week 15, with 2 Saturday games on the slate:

2018 NFL Picks Week 14

Week 13 was so-so, as I finished 10-6 straight up and 8-8 ATS. There were 6 upsets out of the 16 games, but at least my 2 picks were correct. I improve to 17-12 straight up in upsets, and 34-22-2 ATS after going 3-2. Seattle easily won as my Pick of the Week, as I reach 10-2 on the year.

Biggest shocker of the week was New Orleans losing at home to Dallas, followed by Green Bay losing to Arizona at home. The Bears couldn't beat the Giants as road favorites, but the Rams could at the Lions despite not covering the 10 point spread. Speaking of 10 point spreads, the Jets were able to cover at the Titans, and Seattle covered against the 49ers.

On to Week 14!

2018 NFL Picks Week 13

Well week 12 was my best week of picks since Weeks 8/9 where I averaged 11 wins straight up and 9 ATS. I went 13-2 and 12-3 ATS, and I am now picking better than 2 of 3 straight up and slightly over .500 ATS.

I was very good with my upset picks, going 2-0 and 4-1. For the season I am 15-12 straight up and 31-20-2 ATS. Baltimore won easily against Oakland as my pick of the week, bringing my record to 9-2. On to Week 13, with a full slate of 16 games:

2018 NFL Picks Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!

Week 11 wasn't too bad straight up (8-5), but was terrible ATS (3-8-2). I got to 100 correct picks straight up for the year, and at this rate I'll be lucky to reach that milestone ATS. My goal remains 70% straight up, and I'll settle for 50% ATS as long as my upset picks are good.

Speaking of upsets, I was 1-2 straight and 1-1-2 ATS, bringing my season totals to 13-12 and 27-19-2. New Orleans won as my PotW and then some, bringing my season record to 8-2 since I forgot to pick one Week 10.

Green Bay neglected to go for it on 4th down and thus lost as one of my upset picks at Seattle, but they did push against the 3 point spread. Detroit prevailed as a home upset over Carolina (+4.5), but TB couldn't come back for the road upset over NYG (but pushed against the 3 point spread). LA lost as heavy home favorites to DEN, and Chicago had no problem winning big as light home favorites. The Rams survived a shootout with the Chiefs, but were unable to cover the 3.5 point spread.

On to Week 12, the last of the bye weeks:

2018 NFL Picks Week 11

Week 10 was pretty average for me, as I finished 9-5 straight up and 6-7-1 ATS. My overall win % barely moved as a result, as I guess that's better than dropping significantly.

Looking back it appears I forgot to make a Pick of the Week, so I'll just skip it even though I think I would have picked Green Bay. I'll remain at 7-2 for POTW. Washington beat Tampa Bay for my only upset pick straight up (now 12-10), and I was 2-1 in upsets ATS (now 26-18).

Games of note: Buffalo remains a hard team to pick, as they dominated NYJ on the road. Atlanta proved they shouldn't have been heavy road favorites, and TEN proved the same to NE. KC couldn't cover the ridiculous 16.5 point spread against ARI, and the fucking Eagles sucked it up against Dallass.

On to Week 11:

2018 NFL Picks Week 10

I had a lengthier recap typed up by it didn't save and I really don't feel like redoing it. I did great in both straight up and ATS for the second consecutive week though, going 10-3 and 9-4 respectively.

Chicago dominated Buffalo as my PotW to get me to 7-2, while I was 3-0 in straight upsets and 3-1 ATS. I'm now 11-10 straight up and 24-17 ATS.

I had PIT/BAL, ATL/WAS, and TEN/DAL wrong for both picks, and my only other blemish was picking TB to cover the 6.5 point spread at CAR.

2018 NFL Picks Week 9

Week 8 was definitely my best week of picks all year, as I finished 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS. KC won as my PotW to get me to a respectable 6-2. I also fared well in upsets, going 2-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS. I'm still only 8-10 straight up, but 21-16 ATS.

Cleveland was unable to cover the 8 point spread at Pittsburgh, KC won but couldn't cover 9.5 against Denver, Detroit lost as a home favorite to Seattle, and MIN was unable to win at home against NO in a pick. On to Week 9 where I hope to continue my winning ways, though I'm not feeling too confident in most of these games:

2018 NFL Picks Week 8

I'll keep the recap quick this time, as I had another good week picking straight up (10-4) but another so-so week ATS (6-8). Atlanta won as my PotW (but couldn't cover the spread) to improve me to 5-2. I was 2-2 in straight upsets (now 6-10) and 2-3 ATS (18-15).

I was way off in the DEN/ARI game as it was never close. MIA couldn't pull off the home upset against DET, Philly and Jacksonville still suck, INDY won and covered the 7 point spread, and the Saints upset the Ravens. Week 8, here we come:

Thursday, 8:20pm
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (HOU -7.5)
Sunday, 9:30am (London)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars (PHI -3.5)*
Sunday, 1pm
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (CLE +8)
Denver Broncos at *Kansas City Chiefs* (KC -9.5)*
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (CHI -8)*
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (WAS -1)*
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (DET -3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3.5)*
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (CAR +2.5)*
Sunday, 4pm
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (IND -3)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (ARI +1.5)*
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (GB +9)*
Sunday, 8:20pm
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (pick)*
Monday, 8:15pm
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NE -14)

Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans

Picks as of 10/25 7:15pm
*Updated 10/27 11:15pm

Previous Results
Week 1: 10-5-1 [9-6-1]
Week 2: 9-6-1 [8-8]
Week 3: 8-8 [5-11]
Week 4: 9-6 [3-9-3]
Week 5: 8-8 [8-8]
Week 6: 10-5 [7-7-1]
Week 7: 10-4 [6-8]
Season: 64-42-2 (60.4%) [46-57-4 (44.7%)]

2018 NFL Picks Week 7

I had my best week since week 1 picking straight up (10-5) but still can't figure out picking ATS just yet (7-7-1). I now see why most "experts" don't pick every game each week; it's just too hard to predict. That being said, I've done fairly well if you take out Weeks 3 and 4.

Houston outlasted Buffalo as my Pick of the Week (now 4-2) but couldn't cover the 10 point spread. For upsets I was 1-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS; I'm now 4-8 and 16-12 respectively.

The LA Chargers won in an upset pick at Cleveland, Minnesota beat Arizona but the game was a push ATS, JAX got destroyed at DAL, the Titans are terrible, and KC lost at NE but covered the 3.5 point spread. On to Week 7:

2018 NFL Picks Week 6

Week 6 was another mixed bag of picks, as I finished 8-8 straight up and ATS. Even a third into the season I feel some teams still don't know who they are. Baltimore, Buffalo, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Philly, Houston, etc. all have been up and down and hard to predict. At this point anything close to 50% is decent.

New England won easily as my PotW to improve my record to 3-2. I lost by upsets straight up (now 3-7), but was 3-2 ATS (now13-11).

Cleveland won again in a touchdown-less game against Baltimore, KC smoked JAX, LAR remained undefeated but SEA covered the 7.5 point spread, HOU won the battle of Texas, and the Eagles suck.

Moving on to Week 6:

2018 NFL Picks Week 5

Looks like I have some learning to do when it comes to picking against the spread, as I finished Week 4 at a miserable 3-9-2. That puts me at 8-20-2 over the last 2 weeks, as I have done worse each week this season. I'm still ok picking straight up, going 9-6 last week.

The Chargers won over the 49ers as my PotW, improving me to only 2-2 this year. For upsets I was the same as last week (aka terrible), going 0-2 straight up and 1-4 ATS; I'm now 3-5 and 10-9 respectively. There were a lot of OT and close games, so I blame that for my poor picks.

Indy literally gave the game away against Houston, but had it stayed tied it wouldn't have helped me much. I simply cannot pick ATL correctly this season, as they lost at home to CIN. GB won, but actually covered the 9.5 point spread. Cleveland could not win 2 in a row, and couldn't cover the 2.5 point spread either. PIT put up a dud at home to give me losses for both picks.

2018 NFL Picks Week 4

Well that was a forgettable week of picks! I finished 8-8 straight up and an awful 5-11 ATS, thankfully I haven't put any money on these games yet. Still early in the season with plenty of surprises. Has New England reached the end of their reign? Will the Rams ever lose? Miami can't sustain right? Dallas sucks, that much I know.

Minnesota completely shit the bed at home against Buffalo to drop me to 1-2 for Picks of the Week. I was 0-2 picking upsets straight up (Dallas at Seattle and Tampa vs Pittsburgh) to drop me to 3-3 on the season. ATS I was even worse at 1-4, dropping me to 9-5 so far.

There were 6 upsets last week, and of course none were the 2 I picked. Cleveland was able to win their first game in almost 2 years, and they were actually the favorite shockingly. JAX were heavy home favorites, but couldn't win the game let alone cover the 9.5 point spread. HOU were 6 point home favorites, but couldn't win their first game of the season. On to Week 4 and the start of the bye weeks:

2018 NFL Picks Week 3

Holy shit, Cleveland won!

I've started off Week 3 on the right foot, but what about Week 2? It ended up pretty close to Week 1, as I went 9-6-1 straight up and 8-8 against the spread. That was just a bit lower than my Week 1 results. The LA Rams managed to win easily over Arizona for my PotW (now 1-1), and covered the 13 point spread in the process. I was nearly flawless in upsets, going 1 for 1 straight up (KC over PIT), and 4-1 ATS (only loss was CAR +6 at ATL); I'm 3-1 and 8-3 respectively.

Of course there was another tie (MIN at GB), so of course Green Bay couldn't cover the -1 point spread (keep in mind I don't count ties when calculating overall %). New Orleans pulled out the victory against Cleveland, but weren't able to cover the -9.5 point spread. I debated for a while picking Jacksonville at home against New England, but by the end of the day I took a loss in both formats as Jacksonville just outplayed New England.

Enough talk, let's get on to the Week 3 picks:

2018 NFL Picks Week 2

Week 1 is in the books, and I did pretty well considering the first week of any NFL season can be a clusterfuck for lack of a better word. No game epitomizes this more than the Steelers and Browns game resulting in a tie. That's so Cleveland. I finished 10-5-1 straight up, and 9-6-1 against the spread. Not too bad for my first time.

I won't be recapping losses this year, because I don't have the time or care to do so. I will highlight some games as I see fit, as well as go over the upset picks. In that department I actually fared better against the spread, correctly picking 4 of 6 games. I was 2 of 3 straight up. New Orleans decided not to play defense against Tampa Bay, thus I start the season 0-1 in Picks of the Week.

Houston came close to beating the spread against New England, but fell a half point short. Denver beat Seattle, but the 3 point win resulted in a push with the spread. Green Bay came back to beat Chicago, but Chicago covered the 7 point spread in the 4 point loss.

On to the picks for Week 2, in which I am already down 0-1:

2018 NFL Picks Week 1

2018 marks the 7th year I've been making NFL picks, but this is the first year I'll be picking straight up and also with the spread. Let's see how that pans out!

I finished the 2017 season with a correct Super Bowl LII Pick (E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!), which brought me to a 10-3 playoff record. I correctly picked 68.75% in the regular season, which ended up being my best season by 0.75% over 2014's 68%. I am still trying for that elusive 70%, so hopefully it happens this year.

Super Bowl LII Pick

Oh, how sweet it is!!! THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ARE IN THE SUPER BOWL!!! THEY'LL FACE OFF AGAINST, ahem, they'll face off against the New England Patriots to see who will become Super Bowl LII champions. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX, in which the Patriots bested the Eagles 24-21. The matchup means I went 2-0 in my Conference Championship picks (including correctly picking the underdog Eagles), which puts me at 7-3 for the 2018 playoffs. The Eagles are underdogs again for the big game, which will make them the only #1 seed to not be favored in a single playoff game. They're 4.5 point dogs this time, and I'd take them with those points (which I will be doing next year). But who will I pick straight up?

2017 NFL Picks for Conference Championships

For those that care, posts from the last few weeks are now updated.

I had a much better time picking the Divisional Round games, going 3-1 last week. That improves my 2017 post-season record to 5-3 so far, which is a far cry from the 7-1 I was at this point last year. Pittsburgh was upset by Jacksonville as my only loss last week, as Philadelphia upset Atlanta (as home dogs and the #1 seed mind you), New England destroyed Tennessee (as expected), and Minnesota won on a miracle in New Orleans.

Next up are the AFC/NFC Conference Championships, which will determine the participants in Super Bowl LII:

2017 NFL Picks for Divisional Round

So-so start to the post-season, as I went 2-2 during Wild Card Weekend. I went with all the home teams (foreshadowing?), but was surprised with upset wins by Tennessee and Atlanta. Kansas City and Andy Reid blew another big game, as the Los Angeles Rams were unable to continue their surprising season. All of the Divisional Round games should be entertaining, but how well will I pick the winners?

2017 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

I finished up the regular season by going 10-6, which dropped me below 69% overall to end up at 68.75%. Had I correctly picked 4 more games I would have reached my goal of 70% on the year, so not too bad when all is said and done. The Eagles lost to Dallas as my only upset pick last week, which evens me out at .500 for the year (22-22). That means I would have done just as well picking all the favorites each week, but what's the fun in that?

For some reason I picked Baltimore for the second straight week as my PotW, but I figured they'd win with a playoff berth in their grasp. They lost to Cincinnati though, as I end the year 13-4 in that category.

Week 17 saw all division matchups, but very few of them actually had any meaning before kickoff. At least that's my excuse for going 10-6, with my incorrect picks being Washington at the New York Giants, Philadelphia at home against Dallas (upset), Baltimore at home vs Cincinnati (PotW), New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Seattle at home against Arizona, and Denver at home vs Kansas City.

I may do an in-depth post about the regular season, but for now let's move on to the Wild Card round of the 2017 playoffs: