Thursday, October 19, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 7

Full write up and the rest of the picks coming before Sunday. For now, TNF pick:

Kansas City Chiefs over the Oakland Raiders

Thursday, October 12, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 6

I knew it wouldn't be easy picking in Week 5, but I was hoping to do better than 6-8. Lot's of interesting games, as most of the teams still seem to be finding their identities more that a quarter into the season. Regardless, I saw my overall percentage drop from ~70% to 65% with that mark. I really didn't feel comfortable with any team as my PotW, but the Eagles proved me right with the largest margin of victory (27) over Arizona. I am 4-1 for Picks of the Week. I fared worse in upset picks, only correctly picking 2 of 5 (Seattle, Green Bay) to bring my season record to 12-6.

6 of my 8 losses were by 6 points or less, and for that matter 5 of my 6 wins were by 8 points or less. Incorrect picks were Tampa Bay as home underdogs over New England, the winless Giants at home against the (then) winless Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo (upset pick) over Cincinnati, Cleveland (home underdogs) over the New York Jets, Pittsburgh getting smoked by Jacksonville at home, Tennessee over Miami, Detroit at home against Carolina, and Oakland over Baltimore.

Week 6 begins with an excellent Thursday matchup of two 4-1 NFC teams:

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 5

With the completion of Week 4 comes Week 5, and the start of the NFL bye weeks. I finished the first quarter of the season with a 10-6 week, which puts me right around my target of 70% (69.8%). Atlanta lost to Buffalo for my PotW, which drops me to 3-1. I fared better in upset picks though, going 3 for 5 to bring my season total to 10-3. If you have been following my picks the last few years, you know I'm generally terrible picking the Eagles. However, this year I am 4 for 4 with correct picks, so I got that going for me which is nice.

Incorrect picks were Miami over New Orleans in London, New England at home against Carolina, Dallas at home against the Los Angeles Rams, road favorite Jacksonville at the New York Jets, home underdogs Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, and as mentioned above Atlanta at home against (real deal?) Buffalo.

Week 5 picks below, with the rest coming by kickoff on Sunday:

Thursday, September 28, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 4

As expected, I had a bit of a drop off from my 14-2 performance Week 2, but I still finished Week 3 above .500 at 9-7 (more than doubling my loss total in the process). I only had one upset pick (Indianapolis) but they won to bring my season total to 7-1. New England prevailed over Houston as my Pick of the Week, as I start 3-0.

I knew it would be a tough week picking games when I discovered there were a whopping 11 road favorites of the 16 games. Ending up with only one upset of those had me second guessing my picks, but I just couldn't bring myself to pick home upsets for Jacksonville, Chicago, New York Jets, and Buffalo. The other picks were basically toss-ups (Minnesota, Washington), but at the end of the week only 4 road favorites won their games.

I mentioned most of my 7 losses above, but for completion: Baltimore got smoked in London against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh lost to Chicago, Miami lost to the Jets somehow (ditto for Denver vs Buffalo), Carolina lost a home game to New Orleans, Tampa Bay couldn't beat Minnesota without Bradford, and Oakland just didn't show up at Washington.

Still a lot of question marks with most teams, but hopefully the picks will be easier in Week 4:

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 3

Week 2 was certainly a great week for my picks as I ended up with my most wins ever, going 14-2. Looking back, my previous best for wins was 13 (13-2 and 13-1-1), and my previous best for losses was 1 (13-1-1 and 12-1). It wasn't as if all the favorites won either, as I connected on 4 of 5 upset picks. I am now 6-1 in upset picks to start the season. My Pick of the Week (Oakland) won, so I start 2-0 there.

My 2 wrong picks were the Los Angeles Chargers losing at home to Miami, and Green Bay being unable to pull off the upset at Atlanta. On to Week 3:

Thursday, September 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 2

That's a wrap on Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season! Lots of surprises already, including the high scoring Rams and the no scoring Bengals. Oh, and only 15 games thanks to Mother Nature. But how did I do with my picks? Not bad, thanks for asking!

I only had 4 incorrect picks, which starts my year off nicely at 11-4. I was correct in my only 2 upset picks, to start 2-0 there. My PotW also took care of business (Buffalo), good for 1-0 on the year. The losses were all home upsets (New England vs Kansas City, Houston vs Jacksonville, Cincinnati vs Baltimore) with the exception of Indianapolis losing on the road to the Los Angeles Rams.

On to Week 2, with a full slate of games in store:

Thursday, September 7, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 1

Welcome back to my 6th year of NFL Picks! I did a little better last season (+0.5%) than the previous year, finishing at 63.4%. I tied my best playoff record at 9-2 (82%), capped off by a correct Super Bowl LI pick; only a point away from the correct score! I'll try once again to achieve 70% or better...

For those new to my picks, or those that need a refresher:
  • Winners will be bolded
  • Upsets will be italicized
  • *Pick of the Week* will be offset by asterisks
  • Picks will be made straight up, though upsets are determined by the spread
  • Upsets determined from SportsLine
  • Click the "NFL Picks" tag below to see all of my previous picks
Let's get to the first picks of the 2017 NFL season, with only 15 games on the slate thanks to Hurricane Irma:

Thursday, 8:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1pm
New York Jets at *Buffalo Bills*
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 4pm
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 8:30pm
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Monday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (7:10pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (10:20pm)

Byes: Miami, Tampa Bay

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Super Bowl LI Pick

Alas, the highly anticipated potential matchup of Green Bay vs New England did not come to fruition. That means I was 1-1 picking the Conference Championship games, bringing my playoff record to 8-2 with the big game left to play. Who will I pick? Read literally one more sentence to find out!

Saturday, January 21, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Conference Championships

After the completion of the Divisional Round, I found myself with my first post-season loss thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on their home field. I can't complain too much as I won the other 3 games to go 3-1 last week. I was very close to picking Pittsburgh, but I also flirted with picking Seattle, too. I figured one upset was enough (Green Bay over Dallas). But enough of that, let's move on to the picks for the NFC/AFC Championships:

Saturday, January 14, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Divisional Round

Whoo! 4-0 for Wild Card Weekend! Can't let that go to my head though, as all 4 games ended up being blowouts. This week's games look to be much more competitive, with the exception of the Houston/New England game. Let's get on to the picks:

Friday, January 6, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

I finished the final week of the 2016 season at 11-5, though it felt worse than that. All 5 losses were essentially toss-ups for me, but oh well. I'll end the year at 161-93-2, good for 63.4% overall. It wasn't my best season making picks, but it definitely wasn't the worst. Thankfully I finished great down the stretch, going 98-38 (72%) the last 9 weeks. That was much better than the first 8 weeks which saw me pick at 63-55-2 (53%).

I was 0-2 in upset picks (Houston at Tennessee and Oakland at Denver), which will drop me to 20-26 for the season. At least my Pick of the Week (Atlanta over New Orleans) was correct, improving my record to 14-3 and finishing the year picking 9 in a row. I hope to do a "year in review" post soon, which hopefully will have my record by team.

Aside from the 2 incorrect upset picks, I also incorrectly picked Buffalo to beat the New York Jets, Baltimore to best Cincinnati, and Washington to defeat the New York Giants for a playoff berth. Playoff time!

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016 NFL Picks Week 17

Hard to believe, but 11-5 is tied for my worst week since Week 10. While it means I won't hit my goal of 66%, it does improve my overall percentage to 63%. I'll likely end the regular season there, but I can improve to 64.5% with 16 wins or fall to 59% with 16 losses. New England destroyed the New York Jets for my Pick of the Week, and I'm 13-3 with one week left in the regular season. I've correctly picked 8 in a row now, and looking to make that 9. I was 2-1 in upset picks (Philly over NYG, Miami over Buffalo), which brings me to 20-24. I don't think I'll make 4 correct picks this week, so I will probably end the regular season with a losing record picking upsets... meaning I would have fared better statistically not picking any at all!

My incorrect picks were Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Cleveland (I mean who the hell would ever pick the Browns?), Tampa Bay at New Orleans (upset pick), San Francisco at Los Angeles, and Seattle at home against Arizona.

On to Week 17, and Happy New Year!