Sunday, December 31, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 17

Went 12-4 last week, which slightly raised my overall percentage to 69.2%. Baltimore won as my POTW, and I'm now 13-3 this season. My only upset pick (NYG) lost to drop me down to 22-21 this year.

Aside from the New York Giants losing to Arizona, losses were Detroit at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at San Francisco, and Dallas at home against Seattle (which eliminated them from playoff contention).

On to Week 17:

Saturday, December 23, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 16

After a down week, I was back on track Week 15 as I went 13-3 and raised my overall percentage nearly a point to 68.75% (from 67.8%). Minnesota won as my PotW, and improves me to 12-3 this season. I had a crazy 5 upset picks, but only correctly picked 2 of them (Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams). Of the other 3, 2 were decided on the final plays of the games. Damn. Regardless, I am now 22-20 overall in upset picks.

As I mentioned above, all my losses were upset picks in which the favored team prevailed: Green Bay couldn't beat Carolina, Pittsburgh lost at home to New England, and Tennessee couldn't pull it out at San Francisco. Week 16 will see 0 Thursday, 2 Saturday, and 2 Monday games:

Thursday, December 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 15

Week 14 was my first subpar week in a while, as I only went 9-7. That dropped me by a percentage point overall, down to 67.8% for the whole season. Carolina over Minnesota was my only correct upset pick out of 3, as my record creeps closer to .500 at 20-17. The LA Chargers blew out Washington as my PotW (which I mistakenly picked 2 weeks in a row), improving me to 11-3 so far.

Since there were plenty of losses this week, I'll be quick: New Orleans at Atlanta (upset), Tampa Bay over Detroit (upset), Cincinnati over Chicago, Houston over San Fransicso, New York Jets at Denver, Tennessee at Arizona, and most shockingly New England at Miami.

On to Week 15:

Thursday, December 7, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 14

I continued to pick games well again last week, as I finished 12-4 to slightly raise my overall to 68.75%. I have not had more than 4 losses since way back in Week 6, and I'll still finish the year at 64% even if I go 32-32 the final 4 weeks. The Los Angeles Chargers won as my PotW, now 10-3 this year. Both my upset picks won (San Francisco, Miami) to improve my upset record to 19-15.

Incorrect picks were Washington on the road against Dallas, Atlanta at home against Minnesota, Kansas City at the New York Jets, and road favorites Philadelphia at Seattle. On to Week 14, where the playoff races intensify:

Thursday, November 30, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 13

Last week started off great by going 3-0 on Thanksgiving, and continued to be a good week as I finished 13-3 (I did say it would be easy pickings last week!). That raised my overall percentage over a point to 68.2%, as I inch closer to 70% on the year. Pittsburgh prevailed as my Pick of the Week, as I improve to 9-3. New Orleans was unable to beat the LA Rams on the road, as I lost my only upset pick to drop to 17-15 this year. Not too good.

Aside from the New Orleans loss, Kansas City continued their slide at home against Buffalo and Jacksonville lost it late at Arizona.

Week 13 picks after the jump:

Thursday, November 23, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Week 11 is in the books, and so are the bye weeks. That means 16 games every Sunday for the next 5 weeks! Lots of opportunity there, so hopefully I continue my current trend. That trend is going 10-4 for the second consecutive week, to raise my overall percentage by a half point to 66.9% (that's 2 out of every 3, and about 10% higher than this point last year). I picked Kansas City as my PotW thanks to Andy Reid's stellar post-bye record, but they shit the bed in a 12-9 loss at the New York Giants. That's what I get for picking a road team, and my record drops to 8-3 as a result. Atlanta was my only correct upset pick out of 3 games, so I am 17-14 on the year after starting off much more accurately.

Incorrect picks were the aforementioned Chiefs at the Giants, a pair of non-upsets in Miami vs Tampa Bay and Arizona at Houston, and finally Denver over Cincinnati at home.

Week 12 starts off quickly with 3 games on Thanksgiving Day, and should be an easy week to pick winners with a ridiculous 9 of 16 games having a point spread of 6.5 or more (5 of those are double digits). There will undoubtedly be some upsets, but what team will it be? On to the picks!

Thursday, November 16, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 11

Finished Week 10 at 10-4, raising my overall percentage slightly to 66.4%. 8-2 for Picks of the Week this year, thanks to a Detroit victory over Cleveland. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks (San Francisco), which puts me at 16-12 this season.

Losses were Washington losing to Minnesota as home underdogs, Chicago losing to Rodgers-less Green Bay, the New York Jets losing at Tampa Bay, and Buffalo losing to New Orleans also as home underdogs.

Week 11 is upon us, and it's the last week of byes:

Thursday, November 9, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 10

After a few down weeks, I've been much better lately as I finished 9-4 for Week 9. That raises my overall percentage a half point to 66%. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati for my PotW; I'm now 7-2 this year. I split my 2 upset picks (won with Carolina home against Atlanta), bringing me to a mediocre 15-10 this year. Of course, anything over .500 is good in my book.

Losses included Buffalo at the New York Jets on Thursday, Houston at home against Indianapolis, Baltimore unable to upset Tennessee on the road, and Seattle losing a rare home game against Washington.

On to Week 10, which sees the best team in the NFL on bye...

Thursday, November 2, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 9

Two weeks in a row with 11 wins! This time I only had 2 losses to finish Week 8 at 11-2. That raised my win percentage from 63% to 65.6%. New Orleans won over Chicago despite no touchdowns from Drew Brees, as I improved to 6-2 for my Pick of the Week. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks, now 14-9 this year.

My only losses were on Thursday night as Miami got shutout by Baltimore, and Washington losing at home to Dallas. Both were upset picks!

On to Week 9, where I hope to continue my recent winning ways:

Thursday, October 26, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 8

Week 8 was a return to form for me, as I finished 11-4 after going 6-8 the previous 2 weeks. It raised by overall percentage by 1.5%, from 61.5% to 63%. I initially thought last week's games were going to be tough to pick, but I guess I made mostly correct choices. Miami barely pulled through as my PotW, improving to 5-2 on the year. I only had 1 upset pick and it was wrong, which puts me at 13-7 this season.

Losses were Kansas City losing at the last second to Oakland on Thursday, Carolina doing the "bear" minimum at Chicago, Green Bay missing Rodgers at home against New Orleans, and Denver getting shut out at the Los Angeles Chargers.

I like it when recapping the losses is short, so on to Week 8 where the list of games will be short:

Thursday, October 19, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 7

Well crap. Week 6 saw me pick at 6-8 for the second consecutive week, which drops my overall percentage from 65% to 61.5%. Denver somehow lost to the winless New York Giants, so I drop to 4-2 for Picks of the Week. I did manage to correctly predict my only upset pick, as I improve to 13-6 on the year.

Losses included Carolina at home against Philadelphia (always glad to be wrong about picking the Eagles to lose), Atlanta blowing the game against Miami, Green Bay losing the game (and Rodgers) at Minnesota, Baltimore losing a home game to Chicago, Jacksonville and Kansas City doing the same against the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh respectively, Oakland losing a pick 'em game to the Los Angeles Chargers, and finally Denver losing in a huge upset to the New York Giants.

Here's to hoping this week is lucky number 7:

Thursday, October 12, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 6

I knew it wouldn't be easy picking in Week 5, but I was hoping to do better than 6-8. Lot's of interesting games, as most of the teams still seem to be finding their identities more that a quarter into the season. Regardless, I saw my overall percentage drop from ~70% to 65% with that mark. I really didn't feel comfortable with any team as my PotW, but the Eagles proved me right with the largest margin of victory (27) over Arizona. I am 4-1 for Picks of the Week. I fared worse in upset picks, only correctly picking 2 of 5 (Seattle, Green Bay) to bring my season record to 12-6.

6 of my 8 losses were by 6 points or less, and for that matter 5 of my 6 wins were by 8 points or less. Incorrect picks were Tampa Bay as home underdogs over New England, the winless Giants at home against the (then) winless Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo (upset pick) over Cincinnati, Cleveland (home underdogs) over the New York Jets, Pittsburgh getting smoked by Jacksonville at home, Tennessee over Miami, Detroit at home against Carolina, and Oakland over Baltimore.

Week 6 begins with an excellent Thursday matchup of two 4-1 NFC teams:

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 5

With the completion of Week 4 comes Week 5, and the start of the NFL bye weeks. I finished the first quarter of the season with a 10-6 week, which puts me right around my target of 70% (69.8%). Atlanta lost to Buffalo for my PotW, which drops me to 3-1. I fared better in upset picks though, going 3 for 5 to bring my season total to 10-3. If you have been following my picks the last few years, you know I'm generally terrible picking the Eagles. However, this year I am 4 for 4 with correct picks, so I got that going for me which is nice.

Incorrect picks were Miami over New Orleans in London, New England at home against Carolina, Dallas at home against the Los Angeles Rams, road favorite Jacksonville at the New York Jets, home underdogs Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, and as mentioned above Atlanta at home against (real deal?) Buffalo.

Week 5 picks below, with the rest coming by kickoff on Sunday:

Thursday, September 28, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 4

As expected, I had a bit of a drop off from my 14-2 performance Week 2, but I still finished Week 3 above .500 at 9-7 (more than doubling my loss total in the process). I only had one upset pick (Indianapolis) but they won to bring my season total to 7-1. New England prevailed over Houston as my Pick of the Week, as I start 3-0.

I knew it would be a tough week picking games when I discovered there were a whopping 11 road favorites of the 16 games. Ending up with only one upset of those had me second guessing my picks, but I just couldn't bring myself to pick home upsets for Jacksonville, Chicago, New York Jets, and Buffalo. The other picks were basically toss-ups (Minnesota, Washington), but at the end of the week only 4 road favorites won their games.

I mentioned most of my 7 losses above, but for completion: Baltimore got smoked in London against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh lost to Chicago, Miami lost to the Jets somehow (ditto for Denver vs Buffalo), Carolina lost a home game to New Orleans, Tampa Bay couldn't beat Minnesota without Bradford, and Oakland just didn't show up at Washington.

Still a lot of question marks with most teams, but hopefully the picks will be easier in Week 4:

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 3

Week 2 was certainly a great week for my picks as I ended up with my most wins ever, going 14-2. Looking back, my previous best for wins was 13 (13-2 and 13-1-1), and my previous best for losses was 1 (13-1-1 and 12-1). It wasn't as if all the favorites won either, as I connected on 4 of 5 upset picks. I am now 6-1 in upset picks to start the season. My Pick of the Week (Oakland) won, so I start 2-0 there.

My 2 wrong picks were the Los Angeles Chargers losing at home to Miami, and Green Bay being unable to pull off the upset at Atlanta. On to Week 3:

Thursday, September 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 2

That's a wrap on Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season! Lots of surprises already, including the high scoring Rams and the no scoring Bengals. Oh, and only 15 games thanks to Mother Nature. But how did I do with my picks? Not bad, thanks for asking!

I only had 4 incorrect picks, which starts my year off nicely at 11-4. I was correct in my only 2 upset picks, to start 2-0 there. My PotW also took care of business (Buffalo), good for 1-0 on the year. The losses were all home upsets (New England vs Kansas City, Houston vs Jacksonville, Cincinnati vs Baltimore) with the exception of Indianapolis losing on the road to the Los Angeles Rams.

On to Week 2, with a full slate of games in store:

Thursday, September 7, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 1

Welcome back to my 6th year of NFL Picks! I did a little better last season (+0.5%) than the previous year, finishing at 63.4%. I tied my best playoff record at 9-2 (82%), capped off by a correct Super Bowl LI pick; only a point away from the correct score! I'll try once again to achieve 70% or better...

For those new to my picks, or those that need a refresher:
  • Winners will be bolded
  • Upsets will be italicized
  • *Pick of the Week* will be offset by asterisks
  • Picks will be made straight up, though upsets are determined by the spread
  • Upsets determined from SportsLine
  • Click the "NFL Picks" tag below to see all of my previous picks
Let's get to the first picks of the 2017 NFL season, with only 15 games on the slate thanks to Hurricane Irma:

Thursday, 8:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1pm
New York Jets at *Buffalo Bills*
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 4pm
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 8:30pm
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Monday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (7:10pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (10:20pm)

Byes: Miami, Tampa Bay

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Super Bowl LI Pick

Alas, the highly anticipated potential matchup of Green Bay vs New England did not come to fruition. That means I was 1-1 picking the Conference Championship games, bringing my playoff record to 8-2 with the big game left to play. Who will I pick? Read literally one more sentence to find out!

Saturday, January 21, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Conference Championships

After the completion of the Divisional Round, I found myself with my first post-season loss thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on their home field. I can't complain too much as I won the other 3 games to go 3-1 last week. I was very close to picking Pittsburgh, but I also flirted with picking Seattle, too. I figured one upset was enough (Green Bay over Dallas). But enough of that, let's move on to the picks for the NFC/AFC Championships:

Saturday, January 14, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Divisional Round

Whoo! 4-0 for Wild Card Weekend! Can't let that go to my head though, as all 4 games ended up being blowouts. This week's games look to be much more competitive, with the exception of the Houston/New England game. Let's get on to the picks:

Friday, January 6, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

I finished the final week of the 2016 season at 11-5, though it felt worse than that. All 5 losses were essentially toss-ups for me, but oh well. I'll end the year at 161-93-2, good for 63.4% overall. It wasn't my best season making picks, but it definitely wasn't the worst. Thankfully I finished great down the stretch, going 98-38 (72%) the last 9 weeks. That was much better than the first 8 weeks which saw me pick at 63-55-2 (53%).

I was 0-2 in upset picks (Houston at Tennessee and Oakland at Denver), which will drop me to 20-26 for the season. At least my Pick of the Week (Atlanta over New Orleans) was correct, improving my record to 14-3 and finishing the year picking 9 in a row. I hope to do a "year in review" post soon, which hopefully will have my record by team.

Aside from the 2 incorrect upset picks, I also incorrectly picked Buffalo to beat the New York Jets, Baltimore to best Cincinnati, and Washington to defeat the New York Giants for a playoff berth. Playoff time!

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016 NFL Picks Week 17

Hard to believe, but 11-5 is tied for my worst week since Week 10. While it means I won't hit my goal of 66%, it does improve my overall percentage to 63%. I'll likely end the regular season there, but I can improve to 64.5% with 16 wins or fall to 59% with 16 losses. New England destroyed the New York Jets for my Pick of the Week, and I'm 13-3 with one week left in the regular season. I've correctly picked 8 in a row now, and looking to make that 9. I was 2-1 in upset picks (Philly over NYG, Miami over Buffalo), which brings me to 20-24. I don't think I'll make 4 correct picks this week, so I will probably end the regular season with a losing record picking upsets... meaning I would have fared better statistically not picking any at all!

My incorrect picks were Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Cleveland (I mean who the hell would ever pick the Browns?), Tampa Bay at New Orleans (upset pick), San Francisco at Los Angeles, and Seattle at home against Arizona.

On to Week 17, and Happy New Year!