Thursday, November 16, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 11

Finished Week 10 at 10-4, raising my overall percentage slightly to 66.4%. 8-2 for Picks of the Week this year, thanks to a Detroit victory over Cleveland. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks (San Francisco), which puts me at 16-12 this season.

Losses were Washington losing to Minnesota as home underdogs, Chicago losing to Rodgers-less Green Bay, the New York Jets losing at Tampa Bay, and Buffalo losing to New Orleans also as home underdogs.

Week 11 is upon us, and it's the last week of byes:

Thursday, November 9, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 10

After a few down weeks, I've been much better lately as I finished 9-4 for Week 9. That raises my overall percentage a half point to 66%. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati for my PotW; I'm now 7-2 this year. I split my 2 upset picks (won with Carolina home against Atlanta), bringing me to a mediocre 15-10 this year. Of course, anything over .500 is good in my book.

Losses included Buffalo at the New York Jets on Thursday, Houston at home against Indianapolis, Baltimore unable to upset Tennessee on the road, and Seattle losing a rare home game against Washington.

On to Week 10, which sees the best team in the NFL on bye...

Thursday, November 2, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 9

Two weeks in a row with 11 wins! This time I only had 2 losses to finish Week 8 at 11-2. That raised my win percentage from 63% to 65.6%. New Orleans won over Chicago despite no touchdowns from Drew Brees, as I improved to 6-2 for my Pick of the Week. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks, now 14-9 this year.

My only losses were on Thursday night as Miami got shutout by Baltimore, and Washington losing at home to Dallas. Both were upset picks!

On to Week 9, where I hope to continue my recent winning ways:

Thursday, October 26, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 8

Week 8 was a return to form for me, as I finished 11-4 after going 6-8 the previous 2 weeks. It raised by overall percentage by 1.5%, from 61.5% to 63%. I initially thought last week's games were going to be tough to pick, but I guess I made mostly correct choices. Miami barely pulled through as my PotW, improving to 5-2 on the year. I only had 1 upset pick and it was wrong, which puts me at 13-7 this season.

Losses were Kansas City losing at the last second to Oakland on Thursday, Carolina doing the "bear" minimum at Chicago, Green Bay missing Rodgers at home against New Orleans, and Denver getting shut out at the Los Angeles Chargers.

I like it when recapping the losses is short, so on to Week 8 where the list of games will be short:

Thursday, October 19, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 7

Well crap. Week 6 saw me pick at 6-8 for the second consecutive week, which drops my overall percentage from 65% to 61.5%. Denver somehow lost to the winless New York Giants, so I drop to 4-2 for Picks of the Week. I did manage to correctly predict my only upset pick, as I improve to 13-6 on the year.

Losses included Carolina at home against Philadelphia (always glad to be wrong about picking the Eagles to lose), Atlanta blowing the game against Miami, Green Bay losing the game (and Rodgers) at Minnesota, Baltimore losing a home game to Chicago, Jacksonville and Kansas City doing the same against the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh respectively, Oakland losing a pick 'em game to the Los Angeles Chargers, and finally Denver losing in a huge upset to the New York Giants.

Here's to hoping this week is lucky number 7:

Thursday, October 12, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 6

I knew it wouldn't be easy picking in Week 5, but I was hoping to do better than 6-8. Lot's of interesting games, as most of the teams still seem to be finding their identities more that a quarter into the season. Regardless, I saw my overall percentage drop from ~70% to 65% with that mark. I really didn't feel comfortable with any team as my PotW, but the Eagles proved me right with the largest margin of victory (27) over Arizona. I am 4-1 for Picks of the Week. I fared worse in upset picks, only correctly picking 2 of 5 (Seattle, Green Bay) to bring my season record to 12-6.

6 of my 8 losses were by 6 points or less, and for that matter 5 of my 6 wins were by 8 points or less. Incorrect picks were Tampa Bay as home underdogs over New England, the winless Giants at home against the (then) winless Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo (upset pick) over Cincinnati, Cleveland (home underdogs) over the New York Jets, Pittsburgh getting smoked by Jacksonville at home, Tennessee over Miami, Detroit at home against Carolina, and Oakland over Baltimore.

Week 6 begins with an excellent Thursday matchup of two 4-1 NFC teams:

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 5

With the completion of Week 4 comes Week 5, and the start of the NFL bye weeks. I finished the first quarter of the season with a 10-6 week, which puts me right around my target of 70% (69.8%). Atlanta lost to Buffalo for my PotW, which drops me to 3-1. I fared better in upset picks though, going 3 for 5 to bring my season total to 10-3. If you have been following my picks the last few years, you know I'm generally terrible picking the Eagles. However, this year I am 4 for 4 with correct picks, so I got that going for me which is nice.

Incorrect picks were Miami over New Orleans in London, New England at home against Carolina, Dallas at home against the Los Angeles Rams, road favorite Jacksonville at the New York Jets, home underdogs Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, and as mentioned above Atlanta at home against (real deal?) Buffalo.

Week 5 picks below, with the rest coming by kickoff on Sunday:

Thursday, September 28, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 4

As expected, I had a bit of a drop off from my 14-2 performance Week 2, but I still finished Week 3 above .500 at 9-7 (more than doubling my loss total in the process). I only had one upset pick (Indianapolis) but they won to bring my season total to 7-1. New England prevailed over Houston as my Pick of the Week, as I start 3-0.

I knew it would be a tough week picking games when I discovered there were a whopping 11 road favorites of the 16 games. Ending up with only one upset of those had me second guessing my picks, but I just couldn't bring myself to pick home upsets for Jacksonville, Chicago, New York Jets, and Buffalo. The other picks were basically toss-ups (Minnesota, Washington), but at the end of the week only 4 road favorites won their games.

I mentioned most of my 7 losses above, but for completion: Baltimore got smoked in London against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh lost to Chicago, Miami lost to the Jets somehow (ditto for Denver vs Buffalo), Carolina lost a home game to New Orleans, Tampa Bay couldn't beat Minnesota without Bradford, and Oakland just didn't show up at Washington.

Still a lot of question marks with most teams, but hopefully the picks will be easier in Week 4:

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 3

Week 2 was certainly a great week for my picks as I ended up with my most wins ever, going 14-2. Looking back, my previous best for wins was 13 (13-2 and 13-1-1), and my previous best for losses was 1 (13-1-1 and 12-1). It wasn't as if all the favorites won either, as I connected on 4 of 5 upset picks. I am now 6-1 in upset picks to start the season. My Pick of the Week (Oakland) won, so I start 2-0 there.

My 2 wrong picks were the Los Angeles Chargers losing at home to Miami, and Green Bay being unable to pull off the upset at Atlanta. On to Week 3:

Thursday, September 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 2

That's a wrap on Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season! Lots of surprises already, including the high scoring Rams and the no scoring Bengals. Oh, and only 15 games thanks to Mother Nature. But how did I do with my picks? Not bad, thanks for asking!

I only had 4 incorrect picks, which starts my year off nicely at 11-4. I was correct in my only 2 upset picks, to start 2-0 there. My PotW also took care of business (Buffalo), good for 1-0 on the year. The losses were all home upsets (New England vs Kansas City, Houston vs Jacksonville, Cincinnati vs Baltimore) with the exception of Indianapolis losing on the road to the Los Angeles Rams.

On to Week 2, with a full slate of games in store: