Thursday, December 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 15

Week 14 was my first subpar week in a while, as I only went 9-7. That dropped me by a percentage point overall, down to 67.8% for the whole season. Carolina over Minnesota was my only correct upset pick out of 3, as my record creeps closer to .500 at 20-17. The LA Chargers blew out Washington as my PotW (which I mistakenly picked 2 weeks in a row), improving me to 11-3 so far.

Since there were plenty of losses this week, I'll be quick: New Orleans at Atlanta (upset), Tampa Bay over Detroit (upset), Cincinnati over Chicago, Houston over San Fransicso, New York Jets at Denver, Tennessee at Arizona, and most shockingly New England at Miami.

On to Week 15:

Thursday, December 7, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 14

I continued to pick games well again last week, as I finished 12-4 to slightly raise my overall to 68.75%. I have not had more than 4 losses since way back in Week 6, and I'll still finish the year at 64% even if I go 32-32 the final 4 weeks. The Los Angeles Chargers won as my PotW, now 10-3 this year. Both my upset picks won (San Francisco, Miami) to improve my upset record to 19-15.

Incorrect picks were Washington on the road against Dallas, Atlanta at home against Minnesota, Kansas City at the New York Jets, and road favorites Philadelphia at Seattle. On to Week 14, where the playoff races intensify:

Thursday, November 30, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 13

Last week started off great by going 3-0 on Thanksgiving, and continued to be a good week as I finished 13-3 (I did say it would be easy pickings last week!). That raised my overall percentage over a point to 68.2%, as I inch closer to 70% on the year. Pittsburgh prevailed as my Pick of the Week, as I improve to 9-3. New Orleans was unable to beat the LA Rams on the road, as I lost my only upset pick to drop to 17-15 this year. Not too good.

Aside from the New Orleans loss, Kansas City continued their slide at home against Buffalo and Jacksonville lost it late at Arizona.

Week 13 picks after the jump:

Thursday, November 23, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Week 11 is in the books, and so are the bye weeks. That means 16 games every Sunday for the next 5 weeks! Lots of opportunity there, so hopefully I continue my current trend. That trend is going 10-4 for the second consecutive week, to raise my overall percentage by a half point to 66.9% (that's 2 out of every 3, and about 10% higher than this point last year). I picked Kansas City as my PotW thanks to Andy Reid's stellar post-bye record, but they shit the bed in a 12-9 loss at the New York Giants. That's what I get for picking a road team, and my record drops to 8-3 as a result. Atlanta was my only correct upset pick out of 3 games, so I am 17-14 on the year after starting off much more accurately.

Incorrect picks were the aforementioned Chiefs at the Giants, a pair of non-upsets in Miami vs Tampa Bay and Arizona at Houston, and finally Denver over Cincinnati at home.

Week 12 starts off quickly with 3 games on Thanksgiving Day, and should be an easy week to pick winners with a ridiculous 9 of 16 games having a point spread of 6.5 or more (5 of those are double digits). There will undoubtedly be some upsets, but what team will it be? On to the picks!

Thursday, November 16, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 11

Finished Week 10 at 10-4, raising my overall percentage slightly to 66.4%. 8-2 for Picks of the Week this year, thanks to a Detroit victory over Cleveland. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks (San Francisco), which puts me at 16-12 this season.

Losses were Washington losing to Minnesota as home underdogs, Chicago losing to Rodgers-less Green Bay, the New York Jets losing at Tampa Bay, and Buffalo losing to New Orleans also as home underdogs.

Week 11 is upon us, and it's the last week of byes:

Thursday, November 9, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 10

After a few down weeks, I've been much better lately as I finished 9-4 for Week 9. That raises my overall percentage a half point to 66%. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati for my PotW; I'm now 7-2 this year. I split my 2 upset picks (won with Carolina home against Atlanta), bringing me to a mediocre 15-10 this year. Of course, anything over .500 is good in my book.

Losses included Buffalo at the New York Jets on Thursday, Houston at home against Indianapolis, Baltimore unable to upset Tennessee on the road, and Seattle losing a rare home game against Washington.

On to Week 10, which sees the best team in the NFL on bye...

Thursday, November 2, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 9

Two weeks in a row with 11 wins! This time I only had 2 losses to finish Week 8 at 11-2. That raised my win percentage from 63% to 65.6%. New Orleans won over Chicago despite no touchdowns from Drew Brees, as I improved to 6-2 for my Pick of the Week. I was only 1 for 3 in upset picks, now 14-9 this year.

My only losses were on Thursday night as Miami got shutout by Baltimore, and Washington losing at home to Dallas. Both were upset picks!

On to Week 9, where I hope to continue my recent winning ways:

Thursday, October 26, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 8

Week 8 was a return to form for me, as I finished 11-4 after going 6-8 the previous 2 weeks. It raised by overall percentage by 1.5%, from 61.5% to 63%. I initially thought last week's games were going to be tough to pick, but I guess I made mostly correct choices. Miami barely pulled through as my PotW, improving to 5-2 on the year. I only had 1 upset pick and it was wrong, which puts me at 13-7 this season.

Losses were Kansas City losing at the last second to Oakland on Thursday, Carolina doing the "bear" minimum at Chicago, Green Bay missing Rodgers at home against New Orleans, and Denver getting shut out at the Los Angeles Chargers.

I like it when recapping the losses is short, so on to Week 8 where the list of games will be short:

Thursday, October 19, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 7

Well crap. Week 6 saw me pick at 6-8 for the second consecutive week, which drops my overall percentage from 65% to 61.5%. Denver somehow lost to the winless New York Giants, so I drop to 4-2 for Picks of the Week. I did manage to correctly predict my only upset pick, as I improve to 13-6 on the year.

Losses included Carolina at home against Philadelphia (always glad to be wrong about picking the Eagles to lose), Atlanta blowing the game against Miami, Green Bay losing the game (and Rodgers) at Minnesota, Baltimore losing a home game to Chicago, Jacksonville and Kansas City doing the same against the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh respectively, Oakland losing a pick 'em game to the Los Angeles Chargers, and finally Denver losing in a huge upset to the New York Giants.

Here's to hoping this week is lucky number 7:

Thursday, October 12, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 6

I knew it wouldn't be easy picking in Week 5, but I was hoping to do better than 6-8. Lot's of interesting games, as most of the teams still seem to be finding their identities more that a quarter into the season. Regardless, I saw my overall percentage drop from ~70% to 65% with that mark. I really didn't feel comfortable with any team as my PotW, but the Eagles proved me right with the largest margin of victory (27) over Arizona. I am 4-1 for Picks of the Week. I fared worse in upset picks, only correctly picking 2 of 5 (Seattle, Green Bay) to bring my season record to 12-6.

6 of my 8 losses were by 6 points or less, and for that matter 5 of my 6 wins were by 8 points or less. Incorrect picks were Tampa Bay as home underdogs over New England, the winless Giants at home against the (then) winless Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo (upset pick) over Cincinnati, Cleveland (home underdogs) over the New York Jets, Pittsburgh getting smoked by Jacksonville at home, Tennessee over Miami, Detroit at home against Carolina, and Oakland over Baltimore.

Week 6 begins with an excellent Thursday matchup of two 4-1 NFC teams: