Wednesday, September 20, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 3

Week 2 was certainly a great week for my picks as I ended up with my most wins ever, going 14-2. Looking back, my previous best for wins was 13 (13-2 and 13-1-1), and my previous best for losses was 1 (13-1-1 and 12-1). It wasn't as if all the favorites won either, as I connected on 4 of 5 upset picks. I am now 6-1 in upset picks to start the season. My Pick of the Week (Oakland) won, so I start 2-0 there.

My 2 wrong picks were the Los Angeles Chargers losing at home to Miami, and Green Bay being unable to pull off the upset at Atlanta. On to Week 3:

Thursday, September 14, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 2

That's a wrap on Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season! Lots of surprises already, including the high scoring Rams and the no scoring Bengals. Oh, and only 15 games thanks to Mother Nature. But how did I do with my picks? Not bad, thanks for asking!

I only had 4 incorrect picks, which starts my year off nicely at 11-4. I was correct in my only 2 upset picks, to start 2-0 there. My PotW also took care of business (Buffalo), good for 1-0 on the year. The losses were all home upsets (New England vs Kansas City, Houston vs Jacksonville, Cincinnati vs Baltimore) with the exception of Indianapolis losing on the road to the Los Angeles Rams.

On to Week 2, with a full slate of games in store:

Thursday, September 7, 2017

2017 NFL Picks Week 1

Welcome back to my 6th year of NFL Picks! I did a little better last season (+0.5%) than the previous year, finishing at 63.4%. I tied my best playoff record at 9-2 (82%), capped off by a correct Super Bowl LI pick; only a point away from the correct score! I'll try once again to achieve 70% or better...

For those new to my picks, or those that need a refresher:
  • Winners will be bolded
  • Upsets will be italicized
  • *Pick of the Week* will be offset by asterisks
  • Picks will be made straight up, though upsets are determined by the spread
  • Upsets determined from SportsLine
  • Click the "NFL Picks" tag below to see all of my previous picks
Let's get to the first picks of the 2017 NFL season, with only 15 games on the slate thanks to Hurricane Irma:

Thursday, 8:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1pm
New York Jets at *Buffalo Bills*
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 4pm
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 8:30pm
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Monday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (7:10pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (10:20pm)

Byes: Miami, Tampa Bay

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Super Bowl LI Pick

Alas, the highly anticipated potential matchup of Green Bay vs New England did not come to fruition. That means I was 1-1 picking the Conference Championship games, bringing my playoff record to 8-2 with the big game left to play. Who will I pick? Read literally one more sentence to find out!

Saturday, January 21, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Conference Championships

After the completion of the Divisional Round, I found myself with my first post-season loss thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on their home field. I can't complain too much as I won the other 3 games to go 3-1 last week. I was very close to picking Pittsburgh, but I also flirted with picking Seattle, too. I figured one upset was enough (Green Bay over Dallas). But enough of that, let's move on to the picks for the NFC/AFC Championships:

Saturday, January 14, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Divisional Round

Whoo! 4-0 for Wild Card Weekend! Can't let that go to my head though, as all 4 games ended up being blowouts. This week's games look to be much more competitive, with the exception of the Houston/New England game. Let's get on to the picks:

Friday, January 6, 2017

2016 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

I finished the final week of the 2016 season at 11-5, though it felt worse than that. All 5 losses were essentially toss-ups for me, but oh well. I'll end the year at 161-93-2, good for 63.4% overall. It wasn't my best season making picks, but it definitely wasn't the worst. Thankfully I finished great down the stretch, going 98-38 (72%) the last 9 weeks. That was much better than the first 8 weeks which saw me pick at 63-55-2 (53%).

I was 0-2 in upset picks (Houston at Tennessee and Oakland at Denver), which will drop me to 20-26 for the season. At least my Pick of the Week (Atlanta over New Orleans) was correct, improving my record to 14-3 and finishing the year picking 9 in a row. I hope to do a "year in review" post soon, which hopefully will have my record by team.

Aside from the 2 incorrect upset picks, I also incorrectly picked Buffalo to beat the New York Jets, Baltimore to best Cincinnati, and Washington to defeat the New York Giants for a playoff berth. Playoff time!

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016 NFL Picks Week 17

Hard to believe, but 11-5 is tied for my worst week since Week 10. While it means I won't hit my goal of 66%, it does improve my overall percentage to 63%. I'll likely end the regular season there, but I can improve to 64.5% with 16 wins or fall to 59% with 16 losses. New England destroyed the New York Jets for my Pick of the Week, and I'm 13-3 with one week left in the regular season. I've correctly picked 8 in a row now, and looking to make that 9. I was 2-1 in upset picks (Philly over NYG, Miami over Buffalo), which brings me to 20-24. I don't think I'll make 4 correct picks this week, so I will probably end the regular season with a losing record picking upsets... meaning I would have fared better statistically not picking any at all!

My incorrect picks were Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Cleveland (I mean who the hell would ever pick the Browns?), Tampa Bay at New Orleans (upset pick), San Francisco at Los Angeles, and Seattle at home against Arizona.

On to Week 17, and Happy New Year!

Friday, December 23, 2016

2016 NFL Picks Week 16

Week 15 is in the books, and so is another great week for me. I went 12-4 in improve my overall percentage by a point to 62.6%. My PotW, Atlanta, was able to easily beat San Francisco. 12-3 on the year for PotW. I had no upset picks last week, which means my record remains at 18-23. This week is a little odd with Christmas, so instead of the usual slate of games on Sunday, they will now be played on Saturday.

Losses: Minnesota getting destroyed at home by Indianapolis, Kansas City losing a late lead to Tennessee, Arizona losing a shootout to New Orleans, and Carolina upsetting Washington on the road. All losses for the home teams, and upsets for the away teams.

On to Week 16:

Thursday, December 15, 2016

2016 NFL Picks Week 15

Another successful week! That makes 7 in a row, which is half the season at this point. I was 11-5 last week, which bumps me up slightly from 61% to 61.65% overall. To achieve my goal of 66% (2 correct picks out of every 3), I need to reach 169 wins on the year. To do that, I need to make 42 correct picks over the last 3 weeks, which is an average of 14 per week. AKA, probably not going to happen, but I'll still try of course. Detroit barely beat Chicago for my PotW, but I improve to 11-3 this year. For some reason I had 4 road upsets last week, but I was right on half of them (Houston over Indianapolis, New York Jets over San Francisco); my record stands at 18-23. I'd like to get to .500 for upsets this year.

The upsets that didn't pan out were Denver over Tennessee and San Diego over Carolina. I should have picked the home team in those games, as well as for my 3 other losses: Arizona at Miami, Seattle at Green Bay, and Dallas at the New York Giants.

On to Week 15, where we'll have football games played on 4 of the next 5 days: