Eagles vs. Raiders: Behind the Numbers 2013

I'm at a loss for words after this game, but for a different, better reason than last week. The Philadelphia Eagles destroyed (not dominated - more on that later) the Oakland Raiders on their home turf, 49-20. And it wasn't even as close as the 29 point margin, either. Nick Foles clearly bounced back in a big way, throwing for over 400 yards and an NFL record-tying 7 touchdown performance. Peyton who? Nah, he's not on that level, but Eagles fans have to be at least somewhat excited to have him start at QB for the foreseeable future (with Michael Vick's status being unknown). Before we look at the numbers, keep in mind that a blowout in score may not be a blowout in stats:

Like I said, just because the Eagles dominated the scoreboard doesn't mean they dominated the game. I'll talk more about garbage time, which clearly played a part in the seemingly even (or even skewed towards the Raiders) statistics between Oakland and Philadelphia. However, let's look at them as is for now.

Aside from the massive difference in score, the first thing that stands out is the discrepancy between offensive plays, and average gain. "Holy shit" is the phrase that comes to mind: The Raiders ran a whopping 92 plays, a ridiculous 35 more than the Eagles, but Philadelphia gained an excellent 9.5 yards per gain to a very good 6.1 by Oakland. Despite outscoring their opponent by 29, the Eagles gained less net yards, somehow less rushing yards, and less first downs. Basically, they capitalized much better than Oakland on the chances they had, while also fairing better on third downs (40% to 33%), committing less penalties for less yards, and managing 2 takeaways. Enough numbers, let's get to the commentary...

Eagles vs. Giants II: Behind the Numbers 2013

Sorry this is late! Exams suck!

I'm running out of things to say about these losses already: it's only been 5 but the last 2 had very obvious reasons. For the second consecutive week the "potent" Eagles offense has failed to score a touchdown, and have only managed a measly field goal overall. Oh, and that "awful" defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in any of the last 3 games. I won't be saying much about this week, since we all know exactly what happened. Numbers don't lie, right?

In this case, the numbers absolutely don't lie! I could pretty much copy everything from last week's game vs. the Cowboys for this game against the Giants, just substituting "Nick Foles" with "Matt Barkley". The offense stunk, and the defense only allowed 15 points without a touchdown. Now on to the (lack of) numbers...

Building off of last week's performance, the Eagles posted new season lows in net yards, average gain, passing yards, rushing yards, and first downs. Amazingly they only lost the game by 8, thanks to a defensive touchdown; that's only 3 offensive points the last 2 weeks and only 10 total. More later, but give the defense credit for keeping Eli Manning in check for most of the game, and forcing a turnover and 11 penalties from the Giants. Total first downs were almost even, and NY only gained an extra yard per attempt; third down is really where this game was won (42% to only 25% for the Birds).

Eagles vs. Cowboys: Behind the Numbers 2013

I was both surprised and not surprised by the result of the first highly anticipated matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles lost 17-3; that wasn't the surprise. How they lost however, was a shocker to me. The defense played great (exceptional maybe? No, probably not) and the offense, led by Nick "I don't know how to pass" Foles downright STUNK. I can already tell you that the numbers will agree with me, so let's dive right in!

As I presumed, very few surprises here. Despite running the same number of plays (75), the Eagles fared much worse than the Dallas Cowboys. They totaled about 100 less yards (even with garbage time), and averaged more than a yard less per gain. They were out passed. They had less first downs (but somehow only 3 less). They converted less 3rd downs. And yet they still out ran the Cowboys, even though LeSean McCoy had his worst game of the year. Speaking of worst games of the year, this match-up was the lowest offensive output from the Birds; in score, net yards, average gain, rushing yards, and third down conversions they all had season lows. Unfortunately the Eagles were unable to overcome a fairly clean game (until Matt Barkley went into desperation mode), as they only recorded 5 penalties vs. 12 for Dallas and managed their only 3 points off of 2 turnovers (1 ended the first half). Just a glance at the offensive numbers, and it's clear why the score was 17-3.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers: Behind the Numbers 2013

Sure, they got 2 wins in the last 2 weeks against winless teams, but Nick Foles and the Phildadelphia Eagles took care of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, winning 31-20. Though losing at halftime, the Birds used a dominant second half to come out with the W. It was a game the Eagles were supposed to win, but do the numbers support the result?

To answer that question: yes! The Eagles outplayed the Buccaneers in every facet of the game. They outscored, out gained, out ran, and out passed them. They had more first downs, and converted more third downs. They had a fairly clean game, too; only 1 turnover and only 3 penalties for 31 yards. The Birds were able to force 1 turnover by Tampa Bay, which resulted in a touchdown (capitalizing!). If you want to nitpick, the only area the Eagles failed to match the Bucs in was total plays, which they had 1 less. Key stats for the Eagles: rushing yards (138) was over 100 for the 5th time in the first 6 games, and they are averaging well over 100 per game; after the abysmal Kansas City game, the Eagles have only turned the ball over 1 time while recording 5 takeaways; they have had over 400 net yards in every single game this season, with this week's total (425) being the lowest yet.

Eagles vs. Giants: Behind the Numbers 2013

It may not have been a must-win for the Birds this week, but I'd say it was a must-win for the Birds this week. With a win and a Cowboys loss, the Eagles are tied for first place in the NFC East at 2-3, which is big since they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL (as I mentioned in the last BTN). Let's see what the numbers uncover about the Eagles 36-21 win over the New York Giants:

Believe it or not, the Giants were actually winning this game as late as 13:56 into the 3rd quarter after scoring 2 touchdowns. But after the score was 21-19 in their favor, the Eagles took over the game in dominating fashion, scoring 17 unanswered points (thanks to two 4th quarter touchdowns by Nick Foles). The numbers certainly support the Eagles here, as they bested New York in total plays, net yards, average gain, rushing yards, first downs, and third down percent. The only offensive category in which the Giants bettered the Birds was passing yards, which makes sense being down in the 4th quarter couple with their awful rushing game. Philadelphia also committed less penalties: 8 for 88 is still a cause of concern, but the Giants had 12 for an absurd 136 yards. The Eagles did not turn the ball over for the second consecutive game (and third all year) while forcing 4 turnovers (3 Eli Manning INTs). Luckily, they capitalized by scoring 17 points as a result. Clean games will often result in wins, as evidenced here.

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Behind the Numbers 2013

It was almost a year since Andy Reid won a game at Lincoln Financial Field; too bad this time it was as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs! The Eagles were handed their 8th straight home loss, and their second straight of the 2013 season dropping them to 1-2. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why the Birds lost this game, but let's take a look to see if they numbers confirm or deny. Spoiler alert! They confirm:

Honestly, there aren't too many huge discrepancies here. The Eagles only lost the game by 10, but it felt like much more than that based on how poorly they played. Want proof? Fix your eyes on the final two stats: Turnovers and Points Off Turnovers. While the first two games were played fairly clean (2 turnovers) by the Eagles, they more than made up for that against the Chiefs (and are now even in takeaways/giveaways). Michael Vick looked like he forgot how to make good decisions. Simple things like catching a punt and snapping the ball could not be done. In total, the Eagles turned the ball over to the Chiefs 5 times, who scored (luckily only) 13 points as a result. Philadelphia didn't help their cause early on, as 2 of their turnovers put them in a 10-0 hole before 5 minutes were off the 1st quarter game clock. Hmm, seems like those 10 points really helped out Kansas City, considering THEY WON BY 10 POINTS. Without that help, who knows how this game would have ended. Other stats to take note of: the Eagles are obviously better running more plays on offense, but this was the second game where they lost that battle (77-63); when they do run plays, they have an excellent average gain (6.8) and can clearly run the ball (260 yards vs 147); penalties have been pretty good this year; and third down percent was sub par this game (30%).

Eagles vs. Chargers: Behind the Numbers 2013

Well, last Sunday's home opener against the Chargers was disappointing, to say the least. Fans were riding high after last week's dominant win over Washington, but were severely let down with this loss. Before even delving into the numbers, I'll state the obvious: The Eagles defense lost this game, big time. Let's see if the numbers agree!

I'll start with the stats that stick out the most: offensive plays, average gain, first downs, 3rd down %, penalties/yards, and turnovers. Now some of these were in the Birds favor, but others weren't. The San Diego Chargers ran more plays than Philadelphia (who only ran 5 more plays than in the first half of last week's game), but Philly gained close to the same number of net yards (511 vs. 539) with a average gain of 2 more yards per play. 8.8 yards per play is quite good, but that's a moot point if you give up over 530 yards of total offense to the opposition, let them get 33 first downs, and fail to stop over 2/3 of their 3rd down attempts. Add to that by committing 9 penalties for 77 yards (the Chargers had less than half of that) and even with 2 turnovers it's no surprise that you set yourself up to lose the game. Sure, they didn't turn the ball over (Vick is making good decisions for now, more on that later) but when they forced turnovers by San Diego they were unable to capitalize. 0 points off turnovers, though to be fair both turnovers prevented scores from the Chargers. So basically besides a nearly perfect game by Michael Vick and accumulating over 500 yards of offense and 30 points, the Eagles lost this game by giving up just as much as they had. Plus 3 points, of course.

Eagles vs. Redskins: Behind the Numbers 2013

Well, one way for the Eagles to sucker me in to doing another season of Behind the Numbers is to start the year with a excellent win over the Washington Redskins (even though they started last year 2-0). If you don't know what Behind the Numbers is already, check out last year's installments by clicking the tag below this post. Without further ado, let's start the first entry of the 2013 season:

Right off the bat, I'll let everyone know that I added a new category this year: Points Off Turnovers. I felt like this was an important stat to keep track of; obviously turnovers are a huge indication of the quality of a team, but if the other team can't capitalize on said turnovers then it doesn't matter as much. Right? Right. Let's analyze! 

The first thing that sticks out is obviously the discrepancy in rushing yards. The Eagles amassed a ridiculous 263 yards on the ground, to just 74 for the Redskins (yes, even with RG3 and Alfred Morris). This is partly due to the Eagles building a 26-7 lead by halftime, but mainly due to the absurd running skills displayed by LeSean McCoy. Did you see those cuts and jukes? Holy crap, he made the Redskins defense look like a high school team, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Moving away from the run game, the Eagles came out on top for offensive plays, net yards, average gain (which matched McCoy's), first downs, third down conversions, and points off turnovers. They even did better than the 'Skins in the "bad" categories: penalties (8 vs 10), penalty yards (75 vs 65), and turnovers (2 vs 3). The only advantage that Washington had? Passing yards, which makes sense given that the Redskins tried to overcome a huge 26 point deficit. I was most impressed with the Birds 3rd down conversions, which at 47% is a huge improvement from last year's average (37%).  More after the jump!

Michael Vick to remain an Eagle for another year

I'm indifferent to this news. If he has a good healthy year, then great. If he ends up riding the pine, then that's an expensive backup.

UPDATE: The deal is for $10 million, and he will compete with Nick Foles for the starting QB job according to CBS Sports.

Eagles vs. Giants II: Behind the Numbers

Well, the Eagles saved their worst performance of the year for the final game. So much for saving the best for last; this was saving the worst for last. Let's see what the statistics say, in this season's (possible) final installment of Behind the Numbers:

There's no denying that this game was a blowout from the very start. The 42-7 score comes as no surprise when a team like the Giants scores touchdowns on their first 3 drives and 6 of 8 total. Surprisingly the Eagles had more plays than the Giants and only gained 80 less yards, but the Eagles couldn't move the ball too well and thus didn't gain as many yards per play and had about half the first downs the Giants did (a whopping 32 vs. 18). Third down efficiency was superb for the Giants, and under 30% for the Eagles. Turnovers were essentially a non-factor, but of course the Eagles had 1 to the Giants 0.

Eagles vs. Redskins II: Behind the Numbers

When you have 4 wins and 11 losses on the season, chances are you probably won't have a good division record. So far the Eagles are 1-4 in the division, with 2 losses against the Cowboys and after last week, 2 losses against the Redskins. The game managed to be fairly entertaining, and came down to the final anticlimactic play. How close was the 27-20 score? Let's find out:

 



 Yet another game in which the Eagles offense outgained the opposition, but yet another loss. Turnovers were AGAIN an issue, and the Birds third down conversion rate was again sub par. By comparison, the Redskins didn't have as many first downs, but were able to convert half of their third downs and thus sustained drives. Both teams were good with penalites and similar in the rushing attack. The Eagles pass game demolished the Redskins, but in the end an underthrown ball cost the Eagles a chance at OT.

Eagles vs. Redskins: Behind the Numbers

Start the season 3-1, then lose 6 games in a row. Now you're at 3-7, with virtually no shot of the playoffs unless you win out and get help. That's the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles, folks! Let's see what the numbers from this loss say:

 

Unlike last week, not too many positives for the Eagles here. Despite running 20 more offensive plays, they were outscored by 25, outgained by 100+ net yards overall (89 on the ground), and perhaps most alarmingly, the Redskins nearly doubled the Birds in average gain per play. The 'Skins gained an amazing 7.1 yards per play, helped tremendously by 2 TD bombs completed by RG3. Those 2 plays alone counted for 110 yards, and certainly inflated the total. The Eagles once again put up a terrible 37% 3rd down conversion rate, and amassed another 9 penalties for 70 yards. Washington fared even worse in the penalty department with 13 for 80, but none were game changers for the Eagles. And once again, 3 Eagles turnovers led to 10 Washington points; no takeaways yet again. At least first downs were even, right?

Eagles vs. Cowboys: Behind the Numbers

Game 1 with the Dallas Cowboys this season, loss number 6 (5th in a row) for the Philadelphia Eagles. Let's get this over with, ok?

Right off the bat, let me say that the score is NOT a good indication of how this game went, other than the fact that the Cowboys deserved to win the game. That being said, the numbers don't exactly agree with the score. Once again the Eagles offense played better than their opposition, but had little to show for it. They ran more plays, and had a better average gain; obviously they ended up with more total yards of offense. The Eagles were able to move the ball decently, as they had 23 first downs to only 14 for Dallas. However, a lot of drives ended prematurely due to an abysmal 10% conversion rate (1 for 10) on third downs. Ouch. They threw for more yards, and weren't far off from Dallas in the rushing game (they basically abandoned the run late in the game, as they had to play catch up). Dallas seemed to be called for a penalty nearly every other play, but only had 75 penalty yards from 13 penalties. The Eagles fared better in both regards, but had some costly ones as usual. The most telling stat (again)? The Eagles had 2 turnovers, while Dallas had none.

Eagles vs. Saints: Behind the Numbers

This team SUCKS. The offensive line is trash, and they can't score in the red zone. The defense can't come up with a big play, ever. I'm throwing in the towel. If they make the playoffs, then I'll be watching, but I'm done caring until then. On to the numbers (late due to the election and laziness):

Let's see here, what do you get when you run more plays, gain more yards (passing and rushing), achieve more first downs, and have 2 takeaways? The answer is a 15 point loss! On a deeper look it's not that surprising, when you consider that the Eagles were awful on third down, and scored a mere 6 points on 5 red zone possessions. And despite having 2 takeaways in which the Birds scored 10 points, they also turned the ball over twice in the red zone. Basically, the Eagles were able to move the ball almost at will against an awful Saints defense, but were unable to finsish drives and capitlalize on their chances. Oh, and that defense barely put pressure on Drew Brees, only sacking him twice for -8 yards. He was able to keep drives sustained long enough (56% third down conversions) and the Saints were able to score 4 touchdowns. Much different game if the Eagles scored a touchdown on even one more drive, and the Saints were stopped on one.

Eagles vs. Falcons: Behind the Numbers

So it's been another week, and another disappointing Eagles loss. That means another disappointing BTN, so I won't take up too much of your time (if you even read it!). Let's get to it, shall we?

Uh yeah, complete domination by the Falcons over the Eagles. The Birds were beat in every facet of the game, unless you think being tied with 6 penalties is OK. The positives? No turnovers! But no take-aways either, so that's a wash. I really don't have much to say about the numbers in this game; they speak for themselves. The only thing surprising about the 30-17 score is that it wasn't worse. The Falcons scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions, and then added field goals on their next 3 before FINALLY punting for the first time on their 7th possession (with 7:18 left in the 4th quarter, mind you). By contrast, the Eagles scored on only 3 of 8 real possessions. Let's move on, shall we?

Eagles vs. Lions: Behind the Numbers

Another week of BtN, another Eagles loss. Sorry this is so late in the week, but watching these games are frustrating and doesn't exactly make me happy to write about the team.  I'm not gonna bother writing much about this one for now, maybe I'll add more later. Let's look behind the numbers of another loss by a field goal at the last second:

 

 

At first glance, there isn't too much dominating for either team. Close score, about the same number of plays, identical passing yards, nearly the same number of first downs. Lions fared better on the ground and in overall yardage, but it took them until 10:21 remaining in regulation to get their first 3rd down conversion. Their penalty yards were through the roof, but they only had 1 turnover to the Eagles 3. Both teams clearly had their pros and cons, but let's get to where the stats are REALLY telling: the 4th quarter and overtime.

Eagles vs. Steelers: Behind the Numbers

We're now in week 5 of "BTN" and the stats are perhaps the most telling they've been all season. No surprises really, but we'll take a look:

 



Like I said, based strictly on the stats, this game turned out exactly how'd you expect for the Eagles. The Steelers beat the Eagles in every stat (including penalties) except turnovers. Surprise!  Michael Vick fumbled 3 times and lost 2 of those, while the Steelers did not turn the ball over. Guess who won? However despite being out-gained by about 100 net yards (and 50+ rush yards) this game came down to a last second field goal just like last week's game against the Giants. This time though, the Birds weren't so lucky and lost by 2 in the final seconds. In the end, the Eagles offense and defense failed to make a big play.

 

While the 2 fumbles by Vick didn't lead to any Pittsburgh points, it still cost the team. One of the fumbles was lost on the goal line, which easily would have been at least 3 points; even this would have forced Pittsburgh to go for a touchdown as time expired, and who knows how that would have turned out. It also stalled a Philadelphia offense that looked pretty good on their first 2 drives. The next possession resulted in another fumble, but the defense came up big on a 4th down play. The next 2 drives lasted barely over 2 minutes, and resulted in punts. Sure would have been nice to have some points on the board early instead of waiting until the second half, no?

The Eagles fared much better in the second half (thanks to some penalties from Pittsburgh), scoring on 2 of their 3 drives. If 3 drives seems like a small amount for an entire half, just take a look at the time of possession chart above. The Steelers clearly controlled the ball better, taking up the last 6:33 of the game before they kicked a field goal. How is that possible? Easy! You challenge a play you shouldn't challenge and call a BS timeout shortly after, leaving you with only 1 timeout left with 10:35 left in the 4th quarter. Yes, I'm talking about time management from Andy Reid, shocking I know.

Speaking of something actually shocking, can we talk about how the Eagles haven't had a sack in over 2 whole games? That's right, no sacks for the second straight week. Did they replace Jason Babin and Trent Cole with high school players? They're getting pressure, but it's not enough. Ben Roethlisberger snaked in and out of tackles when he had to, but looked waaaaaaaay too comfortable on most drives, especially the last couple. Kudos to the Eagles defense for only allowing 16 points (1 touchdown and 3 field goals) but like I mentioned above, they were unable to force a turnover or get a stop late in the game. I'm not going to pin this on the defense though, as the offense needs to score more often. 14 points does not win a lot of games, and neither does gaining less than 200 yards passing and less than 100 rushing. This offense is capable of doubling both those figures, which they have already done.  This team is becoming frustrating to watch. Next week better be a blowout against the Lions so I can shut up.

Miscellaneous
-Timeout use was awful in the second half of a close game, and the challenge was awful considering they went for it on 4th down anyway.
-Speaking of that 4th down call: gutsy, but proved to be necessary.
-The defense is playing well still, and has kept the Eagles in every game thus far. I think it's safe to say we can pin the 2 losses on turnovers and lack of scoring.
-Run defense looked suspect yesterday, but I'm gonna assume it was a fluke.
-I'm not going to say to get rid of Vick, because I don't think it's time for that yet. However, he needs to take a class on securing the ball.
-Minus the fumbles, Vick played an excellent game as QB, with a rating in the 100s. He wasn't able to produce a deep pass play like we've grown accustomed to. Credit the Steelers defense for that.
-Like I bolded above, frustration is the main emotion when watching this team.

(Eagles at Steelers PDF)

Last week vs. Giants: W, 19-17
Next week vs. Lions: Sunday 1pm

Eagles vs. Giants: Behind the Numbers

Welcome to another installment of Behind the Numbers, the new series I put a lot of work into but nobody reads! Regardless, I enjoy analyzing the stats and writing about the games each week, so deal with it. Before I begin, I gotta throw a shout out to Brian Dawkins, whose #20 was officially retired last night.

Right off the bat I have to mention the most alarming stat of the game. NO EAGLES TURNOVERS!!! After racking up 12 through the first 3 weeks, the Eagles managed to protect the ball for all 4 quarters against the Giants.  This proved to be key, as nobody scored until after the 2 minute warning in the first half. The game ended with a low score, so any Eagles turnovers would have been amplified. The lone turnover of the game -another red zone interception by Eli Manning- resulted in an Eagles field goal. Winning the game by only 2 points, this proved to be the difference. Winning 19-17, the Birds are in sole possession of first place in the NFC East, at 3-1. Let's take a look at the stats:

Eagles vs. Cardinals: Behind the Numbers

Well, there's not much to say about this one. Not much was done right by the Eagles, who handily lost yesterday against the Arizona Cardinals 27-6. So in a way, I guess I was right last week when I predicted a blow out; I just had the wrong team winning! Anyway, on to the numbers.

 

The first thing that stands out here, aside from the score, is how even both the Eagles and Cardinals were in the key categories. Oh, and the turnovers again. Based on the 9 stats in the middle of the graph, the 27-6 score doesn't make much sense. In fact, based on those stats, the Eagles should have won: they gained more net yards, had more rushing yards, and gained more yards per play. Passing yards were only +5 in favor of the Cardinals, first downs were even, the Cardinals fared slightly better on 3rd down conversions. Penalties for the Birds were actually manageable, only committing 5 for 65 yards; this is still something to be improved upon. However all of this is moot once we get to the turnovers. In the previous 2 weeks the Eagles gave the ball up 9 times, but they capitalized on the 6 takeaways by the defense. This week they weren't so lucky, as Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals protected the ball for the whole game which never gave the Eagles a chance to pick up momentum. Turnovers, to me, were the reason the Eagles lost this game; their sloppy play finally caught up to them.

Eagles vs. Ravens: Behind the Numbers

Another week of "Behind the Numbers" and another Eagles win! Again it wasn't pretty, but a win is a win is a win. The Birds are now 2-0, flying solo at the top of the NFC East. If you missed last week's BtN, check it out here; now on to Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens.

Obviously this week wasn't as dominating for the Eagles, though it did result in another 1 point win. After last week's sloppy game against a sub-par team, this week's battle against the Ravens was billed as a challenge. There's no way the Birds could play as sloppy as they did last week, right? Wrong. While they definitely played a slightly cleaner game, Michael Vick threw another 2 picks and fumbled; LeSean McCoy fumbled again, already doubling his total from all of last season. Penalties were reduced, but still an issue of concern. In the end, Vick led another late 4th quarter comeback (second in as many weeks) to defeat Joe Flacco (abysmal in the 2nd half) and the Ravens 24-23. Stat analysis after the jump...