When it comes to baseball, there is certainly no lack of statistics. There's not even a lack of statistics about statistics. So when Bill James comes up with something he calls the "Career Assesments Formula" it really comes as no surprise. It predicts career totals for MLB players, and in this case it's homeruns (by age 40). So who has the best chance to become the next 600 homerun hitter (after Jim Thome accomplished the feat last night)?
Mark Teixeira - 22% chance, 33 HRs needed per year
Prince Fielder - 29% chance, 29 HRs needed per year
Ryan Howard - 33% chance, 36 HRs needed per year
Adam Dunn - 50% chance, 26 HRs needed per year
Albert Pujols - 97 % chance, 18 HRs needed per year
And damn you Adam Dunn for messing up the columns above!