Eagles vs 49ers: Behind the Numbers 2014

Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. Unfortunately it happened sooner as the Philadelphia Eagles lost for the first time this year, falling to the San Francisco 49ers 26-21. Before the game the Eagles were the best second half team, and the 49ers were the worst second half team. So naturally the Eagles went scoreless after halftime, and the 49ers scored 13 points in their come from behind victory. The Eagles defense played fairly well and special teams accounted for all their points. The offense was anemic, as I'm sure the numbers will support:

Super Bowl XLVII Pick

So it has all come down to this: the San Francisco 49ers will be playing the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans. Lots of people are picking the 49ers, and lots of people are picking the Ravens. We'll get to who I'm picking in a bit; first the results from 2 weeks ago.
I finished 1-1 picking the Conference Championships. Both were pretty good games, with the 49ers/Falcons game being the more entertaining of the two. I'd make an assumption that I wasn't the only one surprised with the Ravens/Patriots result, but the Patriots played poorly against an excellent Ravens defense. The Falcons looked like they were going to win for a while, but blew a 17 point lead as the 49ers never quit. I do think this game will be low scoring, but ultimately the 49ers defense showed more holes than the Ravens'. With that, on to the pick:

Super Bowl XLVII
Baltimore Ravens over San Francisco 49ers, 23-16


Previous Results
Week 4: 12-3
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 5-9
Week 7: 12-1
Week 8: 6-8
Week 9: 11-3
Week 10: 10-3-1
Week 11: 12-2
Week 12: 8-8
Week 13: 9-7
Week 14: 10-6
Week 15: 10-6
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 9-7
Total: 135-72-1 (65%)

Wild Card: 3-1
Divisional: 2-2
Conference: 1-1
Total: 6-4 (60%)

David Akers ties NFL record with 63 yard field goal

Congrats to former Eagle kicker David Akers, who just "nailed" a 63 yard field goal for the 49ers, tying an NFL record. It hit the crossbar and flipped over through the uprights; it would have been short if it were kicked even a foot shorter. For some reason, 63 yards seems to be the limit for field goals, as several kickers have tied it but nobody has passed the mark thus far. Congrats again!

3 Eagles named Pro Bowl starters

Congrats to LeSean McCoy, Jason Peters, and Jason Babin, named Pro Bowl starters for the NFC as RB, T, and DE respectively.  At least we'll be able to watch some Eagles play football past January.

Also a congrats to 49ers Kicker David Akers for starting yet another Pro Bowl, and for breaking San Fran's single season points record as well as the NFL record for field goals made in a season.

Full NFC and AFC Pro Bowl rosters at CBS Sports.

What if the Eagles didn't blow those 4th quarter leads?

The NFC standings would be different, that's for sure.  As they are now:

NFC

East

• 6-3 NY Giants
• 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
• 3-6 Philadelphia Eagles
• 3-6 Washington Redskins

North

• 9-0 Green Bay Packers
• 6-3 Detroit Lions
• 6-3 Chicago Bears
• 2-7 Minnesota Vikings

South

• 7-3 New Orleans Saints
• 5-4 Atlanta Falcons
• 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2-7 Carolina Panthers

West

• 8-1 San Francisco 49ers
• 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
• 3-6 Arizona Cardinals
• 2-7 St. Louis Rams

The Eagles blew 4th quarter leads in 5 of their 6 losses, versus the Falcons, Giants, 49ers, Bears, and Cardinals.  I don't think it's unreasonable to assume the Eagles could have won each one of those games, considering the late blown leads.  Here's the updated standings had they won:

NFC

East

• 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles
• 5-4 NY Giants
• 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
• 3-6 Washington Redskins

North

• 9-0 Green Bay Packers
• 6-3 Detroit Lions
• 5-4 Chicago Bears
• 2-7 Minnesota Vikings

South

• 7-3 New Orleans Saints
• 4-5 Atlanta Falcons
• 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2-7 Carolina Panthers

West

• 7-2 San Francisco 49ers
• 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
• 2-7 Arizona Cardinals
• 2-7 St. Louis Rams

As you can see, the Eagles would have a commanding lead in the NFC East, with the Giants in the middle of the Wild Card hunt.  The Bears, who have recently had a resurgence, would also be in the middle of the Wild Card hunt and not leading it/favored to win.  The Falcons, who have stumbled as of late, would give the Saints control of the NFC South and be at the bottom of the possible Wild Card teams.  For the NFC West, the Cardinals would share the basement with the Rams instead of being a game up, so no significance there.  However, had the 49ers lost, they'd have been 2-2 at the time as opposed to the much better 3-1.  They've won several close games this season, and it's possible the Eagles game gave them some momentum (it certainly took away any the Eagles were hoping to gain).  They'd probably still be leading the West, but it would be a much different division.

If the Eagles continue to blow leads, I might have to do another one of theses "what ifs".  Stay tuned.