Saturday, January 4, 2014

2013 NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Last week wrapped up my first full year of NFL picks, and I fared OK in my book. I didn't live up to last year's totals, but I at least had a season statistically better than a coin-flip. I finished up at exactly 60% overall, down 5% from last year's partial season picks. I did manage to save the best for last, as I went 13-3 in Week 17, so hopefully I can ride that momentum into the NFL playoffs. A final look back at the regular season:

Detroit basically gave up in the late stages of this season, as they missed the playoffs with losses in their last 4 games (the latest being last week at Minnesota). Miami was in the driver's seat for the final AFC playoff spot, yet they failed to beat a roller coaster New York Jets team at home. My final loss was a toss-up between San Francisco and Arizona, and I incorrectly assumed that Arizona would come out on top since they had more to play for. I had no upset picks last week, and it turns out it was for the better.

Before getting to the Wild Card picks, a few things about the season I'd like to touch on. Since I implemented upset picks in Week 3, I finished a miserable 9-31. And no, that's not 9 FOR 31, its 9 AND 31, "good" for 22.5%. Had I gone with the favorites in all of those games I would have finished the season at 175-80-1, which would have been 68%. So upset picks accounted for 31% of all my losses, and only 6% of my wins. The payoff just isn't there, so I foresee much less upset picks next year, though I will say I never looked at the betting lines for the games until AFTER I made my picks.

Enough about what could have been, let's look ahead to the playoffs:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers* at San Francisco 49ers

*upset pick as of 12:45pm Saturday 1/4

Previous Results
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 7-9
Week 4: 8-7
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 8-7
Week 8: 9-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 10: 6-8
Week 11: 9-6
Week 12: 7-6-1
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 11-5
Week 15: 8-8

Week 16: 10-6
Week 17: 13-3
Season: 153-102-1 (60%)

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